globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-018-2404-x
WOS记录号: WOS:000464905800001
论文题名:
Stochastic generators of multi-site daily temperature: comparison of performances in various applications
作者: Evin, Guillaume1; Favre, Anne-Catherine2; Hingray, Benoit2
通讯作者: Evin, Guillaume
刊名: THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0177-798X
EISSN: 1434-4483
出版年: 2019
卷: 135, 期:3-4, 页码:811-824
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: DAILY PRECIPITATION ; WEATHER GENERATOR ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL ; SIMULATION ; MULTIVARIATE ; ALGORITHM ; RISK
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

We present a multi-site stochastic model for the generation of average daily temperature, which includes a flexible parametric distribution and a multivariate autoregressive process. Different versions of this model are applied to a set of 26 stations located in Switzerland. The importance of specific statistical characteristics of the model (seasonality, marginal distributions of standardized temperature, spatial and temporal dependence) is discussed. In particular, the proposed marginal distribution is shown to improve the reproduction of extreme temperatures (minima and maxima). We also demonstrate that the frequency and duration of cold spells and heat waves are dramatically underestimated when the autocorrelation of temperature is not taken into account in the model. An adequate representation of these characteristics can be crucial depending on the field of application, and we discuss potential implications in different contexts (agriculture, forestry, hydrology, human health).


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125312
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Grenoble Alpes, Irstea, UR ETGR, Grenoble, France
2.Univ Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP,IGE, F-38000 Grenoble, France

Recommended Citation:
Evin, Guillaume,Favre, Anne-Catherine,Hingray, Benoit. Stochastic generators of multi-site daily temperature: comparison of performances in various applications[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,135(3-4):811-824
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