globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4206-3
WOS记录号: WOS:000460902200009
论文题名:
Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations
作者: Lui, Yuk Sing1; Tam, Chi-Yung1; Lau, Ngar-Cheung2,3
通讯作者: Tam, Chi-Yung
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:3-4, 页码:1443-1459
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY ; GAUGE-BASED ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE EXTREMES ; TRENDS ; INDEXES ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS ; FREQUENCY ; PRODUCT ; EVENTS
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

This study examines the impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes in the Asian monsoon region during boreal summer, based on simulations from the 20-km Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model. The model can capture the summertime monsoon rainfall, with characteristics similar to those from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation. By comparing the 2075-2099 with the present-day climate simulations, there is a robust increase of the mean rainfall in many locations due to a warmer climate. Over southeastern China, the Baiu rainband, Bay of Bengal and central India, extreme precipitation rates are also enhanced in the future, which can be inferred from increases of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, the maximum accumulated precipitation in 5consecutive days, the simple daily precipitation intensity index, and the scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution. In these regions, with the exception of the Baiu rainband, most of these metrics give a fractional change of extreme rainfall per degree increase of the lower-tropospheric temperature of 5 to 8.5%K-1, roughly consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, over the Baiu area extreme precipitation change scales as 3.5%K-1 only. We have also stratified the rainfall data into those associated with tropical cyclones (TC) and those with other weather systems. The AGCM gives an increase of the accumulated TC rainfall over southeastern China, and a decrease in southern Japan in the future climate. The latter can be attributed to suppressed TC occurrence in southern Japan, whereas increased accumulated rainfall over southeastern China is due to more intense TC rain rate under global warming. Overall, non-TC weather systems are the main contributor to enhanced precipitation extremes in various locations. In the future, TC activities over southeastern China tend to further exacerbate the precipitation extremes, whereas those in the Baiu region lead to weaker changes of these extremes.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125314
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Earth Syst Sci Programme, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Inst Environm Energy & Sustainabil, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Geog & Resource Management, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Lui, Yuk Sing,Tam, Chi-Yung,Lau, Ngar-Cheung. Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(3-4):1443-1459
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