globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4241-0
WOS记录号: WOS:000460902200047
论文题名:
Modeling distributional changes in winter precipitation of Canada using Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile regression subjected to different teleconnections
作者: Tan, Xuezhi1,2; Gan, Thian Yew2; Chen, Shu3; Liu, Bingjun1
通讯作者: Tan, Xuezhi
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:3-4, 页码:2105-2124
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Spatiotemporal quantile regression ; Distribution changes ; Teleconnections ; Precipitation ; Large-scale climate patterns
WOS关键词: SCALE CLIMATE ANOMALIES ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; SEASONAL PRECIPITATION ; HEAVY PRECIPITATION ; WATER AVAILABILITY ; UNITED-STATES ; VARIABILITY ; TRENDS ; OSCILLATION
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Climate change and large-scale climate patterns may result in changes in probability distributions of climate variables that are associated with changes in the mean and variability, and severity of extreme climate events. In this paper, we applied a flexible framework based on the Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile (BSTQR) model to identify climate changes at different quantile levels and their teleconnections to large-scale climate patterns such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA). Using the BSTQR model with time (year) as a covariate, we estimated changes in Canadian winter precipitation and their uncertainties at different quantile levels. There were some stations in eastern Canada showing distributional changes in winter precipitation such as an increase in low quantiles but a decrease in high quantiles. Because quantile functions in the BSTQR model vary with space and time and assimilate spatiotemporal precipitation data, the BSTQR model produced much spatially smoother and less uncertain quantile changes than the classic regression without considering spatiotemporal correlations. Using the BSTQR model with five teleconnection indices (i.e., SOI, PDO, PNA, NP and NAO) as covariates, we investigated effects of large-scale climate patterns on Canadian winter precipitation at different quantile levels. Winter precipitation responses to these five teleconnections were found to occur differently at different quantile levels. Effects of five teleconnections on Canadian winter precipitation were stronger at low and high than at medium quantile levels.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125319
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Dept Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China
2.Univ Alberta, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Edmonton, AB T6G 2W2, Canada
3.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Tan, Xuezhi,Gan, Thian Yew,Chen, Shu,et al. Modeling distributional changes in winter precipitation of Canada using Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile regression subjected to different teleconnections[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(3-4):2105-2124
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Tan, Xuezhi]'s Articles
[Gan, Thian Yew]'s Articles
[Chen, Shu]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Tan, Xuezhi]'s Articles
[Gan, Thian Yew]'s Articles
[Chen, Shu]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Tan, Xuezhi]‘s Articles
[Gan, Thian Yew]‘s Articles
[Chen, Shu]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.