globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2359-z
WOS记录号: WOS:000462907000006
论文题名:
Uncertainty representations of mean sea-level change: a telephone game?
作者: van der Pol, Thomas David; Hinkel, Jochen
通讯作者: van der Pol, Thomas David
刊名: CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2019
卷: 152, 期:3-4, 页码:393-411
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: ROBUST DECISION-MAKING ; FLOOD RISK-MANAGEMENT ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; POTENTIAL IMPACTS ; PROJECTIONS ; ADAPTATION ; SCENARIOS ; VULNERABILITY ; METHODOLOGY ; EXPOSURE
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

For the long-term management of coastal flood risks, investment and policy strategies need to be developed in light of the full range of uncertainties associated with mean sea-level rise (SLR). This, however, remains a challenge due to deep uncertainties involved in SLR assessments, many ways of representing uncertainties and a lack of common terminology for referring to these. To contribute to addressing these limitations, this paper first develops a typology of representations of SLR uncertainty by categorising these at three levels: (i) SLR scenarios versus SLR predictions, (ii) the type of variable that is used to represent SLR uncertainty, and (iii) partial versus complete uncertainty representations. Next, it is analysed how mean SLR uncertainty is represented and how representations are converted within the following three strands of literature: SLR assessments, impact assessments and decision analyses. We find that SLR assessments mostly produce partial or complete precise probabilistic scenarios. The likely ranges in the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are a noteworthy example of partial imprecise probabilistic scenarios. SLR impact assessments and decision analyses mostly use deterministic scenarios. In conversions of uncertainty representations, a range of arbitrary assumptions are made, for example on functional forms of probability distributions and relevant confidence levels. The loss of quality and the loss of information can be reduced by disregarding deterministic and complete precise probabilistic predictions for decisions with time horizons of several decades or centuries and by constructing imprecise probabilistic predictions and using these in approaches for robust decision-making.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125330
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作者单位: Global Climate Forum, Neue Promenade 6, D-10178 Berlin, Germany

Recommended Citation:
van der Pol, Thomas David,Hinkel, Jochen. Uncertainty representations of mean sea-level change: a telephone game?[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019-01-01,152(3-4):393-411
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