globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-018-2552-z
WOS记录号: WOS:000467151000034
论文题名:
Downscaling of daily extreme temperatures in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin using machine learning techniques
作者: Ren, Meifang1,2; Pang, Bo1,2; Xu, Zongxue1,2; Yue, Jiajia3; Zhang, Rong1,2
通讯作者: Pang, Bo
刊名: THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0177-798X
EISSN: 1434-4483
出版年: 2019
卷: 136, 期:3-4, 页码:1275-1288
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Temperature downscaling ; Machine learning techniques ; Yarlung Zangbo River Basin ; CMIP5 model ; Projection
WOS关键词: GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; RAINFALL ; CMIP5 ; PRECIPITATION ; PREDICTION ; CHINA
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB) is the longest plateau river in China and is one of the highest rivers in the world. In the context of climate change, the ecological environment of the YZRB has become increasingly fragile because of its unique location and environment. In this study, four machine learning techniques, multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF) model, were applied to downscale the daily extreme temperatures (maximum and minimum) at 20 meteorological stations located in and around the YZRB. The performance of these methods was evaluated using four comparison criteria. The best identified model was adopted to simulate future temperatures under two extreme scenarios (the lowest rate emission scenario (RCP2.6) and the highest rate emission scenario (RCP8.5)) from 2016 to 2050 using outputs from the MPI-ESM-LR climate model. The four comparison criteria showed that the RF model yielded the highest efficiency; therefore, this model was chosen to simulate the future temperatures. The results indicate that the extreme temperatures at the 20 stations increase continually under both extreme scenarios. The increases in the maximum temperature at the 20 stations under the two extreme emission scenarios are 0.46 and 0.83 degrees C, and the increases in the minimum temperature at the 20 stations are 0.30 and 0.68 degrees C for the period 2016-2050, respectively.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125342
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Water Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
2.Beijing Key Lab Urban Hydrol Cycle & Sponge City, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
3.Qinghai Normal Univ, Coll Geog Sci, Xining 810000, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Ren, Meifang,Pang, Bo,Xu, Zongxue,et al. Downscaling of daily extreme temperatures in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin using machine learning techniques[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,136(3-4):1275-1288
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