globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02405-w
WOS记录号: WOS:000472894800011
论文题名:
Climate change in Africa: costs of mitigating heat stress
作者: Parkes, Ben1,2; Cronin, Jennifer3; Dessens, Olivier3; Sultan, Benjamin4
通讯作者: Parkes, Ben
刊名: CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2019
卷: 154, 期:3-4, 页码:461-476
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: RESIDENTIAL SECTOR ; FUTURE PROJECTIONS ; COUNTRIES ; TRENDS ; URBANIZATION ; ENSEMBLE ; SCALE ; RISK
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

We applied two metrics, apparent temperature and humidex, to calculate heat stress in both present and future climates. We use an ensemble of CORDEX-Africa simulations to estimate heat stress during a baseline period and at two specific warming levels, 2 and 4 degrees C above pre-industrial. The increase in temperatures and changes to the precipitation distribution under climate change are projected to increase the intensity of heat stress events in Sahelian Africa and introduce new heat stress events in Northern and Central Africa. As the intensity of heat stress increases, it is expected that the use of energy-intensive cooling will increase. The energy system, therefore, will need to be able to supply more energy to power fans or air conditioning units. The cooling demand to turn a heat stress event into a non-heat stress event is computed. This value is then weighted by the population to find the total cooling required to prevent heat stress across the continent. Country-level results indicate that the greatest increases in cooling demand will occur in countries with densely populated regions, most notably Nigeria. Supplying this additional cooling demand will present the greatest challenge to less developed countries like Somalia. We find the least-cost future energy system that meets the projected increase in demand and derive the increase in energy system costs with the TIAM-UCL model. The total increase in energy costs to prevent heat stress is found to be $51bn by 2035 and $487bn by 2076.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125364
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Paris 06, UPMC, Sorbonne Univ, CNRS,IRD,MNHN LOCEAN,IPSL, 4 Pl Jussieu, F-75005 Paris, France
2.Univ Manchester, Sch Mech Aerosp & Civil Engn, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England
3.UCL, Energy Inst, London WC1H 0NN, England
4.Univ Avignon, Univ Antilles, Univ Reunion, ESPACE DEV,Univ Montpellier,IRD,Univ Guyane, Montpellier, France

Recommended Citation:
Parkes, Ben,Cronin, Jennifer,Dessens, Olivier,et al. Climate change in Africa: costs of mitigating heat stress[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019-01-01,154(3-4):461-476
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