globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02420-x
WOS记录号: WOS:000472894800004
论文题名:
Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2 degrees C enough?
作者: Nunez, Sarahi1; Arets, Eric2; Alkemade, Rob1,3; Verwer, Caspar4; Leemans, Rik1
通讯作者: Nunez, Sarahi
刊名: CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2019
卷: 154, 期:3-4, 页码:351-365
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: TERRESTRIAL BIODIVERSITY ; EXTINCTION RISK ; RANGE SHIFTS ; CONSERVATION ; VULNERABILITY ; SENSITIVITY ; INTACTNESS ; SCENARIOS ; RESPONSES ; MODELS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Large changes in biodiversity are expected to occur if climate change continues at its current pace. Adverse effects include changes in species habitats and compositions, and consequently changes in ecosystem functioning. We assessed the magnitude of expected changes of biodiversity by performing a meta-analysis of the responses of species distributions to climate change. We focused on the proportion of local remaining species and their habitats. We summarized 97 studies and calculated two effect-size metrics from their results to quantify changes in biodiversity. These metrics are the fraction of remaining species (FRS) and the fraction of remaining area (FRA) with suitable climate for each species. Both metrics calculate deviations from the original biodiversity state and together they indicate biodiversity intactness. We found an expected gradual decrease in both FRS and FRA with significant reductions of 14% and 35% between 1 and 2 degrees C increase in global mean temperatures. Strong impacts are projected for both mammals and plants with FRS reductions of 19%. The climate-change response of biodiversity varies strongly among taxonomic groups and biomes. For some taxonomic groups the FRA declines strongly beyond 3 degrees C of temperature increase. Although these estimates are conservative, as we assume that species are unable to disperse or adapt, we conclude that already at moderate levels (i.e., 1-2 degrees C) of temperature increase a significant decrease of original biodiversity is projected. Our research supports the pledge to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees C and preferably lower to protect biodiversity.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125366
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Wageningen Univ & Res, Environm Syst Anal Grp, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
2.Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen Environm Res, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
3.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands
4.IUCN Natl Comm Netherlands, Plantage Middenlaan 2K, NL-1018 DD Amsterdam, Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
Nunez, Sarahi,Arets, Eric,Alkemade, Rob,et al. Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2 degrees C enough?[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019-01-01,154(3-4):351-365
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