globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4398-6
WOS记录号: WOS:000467187600046
论文题名:
Short-term concurrent drought and heatwave frequency with 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C global warming in humid subtropical basins: a case study in the Gan River Basin, China
作者: Zhang, Yuqing1,4; You, Qinglong2,3,4; Mao, Guangxiong1; Chen, Changchun5; Ye, Zhengwei1
通讯作者: You, Qinglong
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:7-8, 页码:4621-4641
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Concurrent droughts and heatwaves ; 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C of global warming ; Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) ; Gan River Basin ; China
WOS关键词: POYANG LAKE BASIN ; FLASH DROUGHTS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CMIP5 ; IMPACTS ; TRENDS ; PRECIPITATION ; EXTREMES ; MODEL ; RISK
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Short-term concurrent droughts and heatwaves accompanied by high temperatures and low soil moisture (or low precipitation) may significantly impact ecosystems, societies, and economies although the individual events involved may not themselves represent severe extremes. There is little known about the potential frequency of short-term concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the future. Here, we use the Gan River Basin as a case study area to assess the effects of different warming levels on drought and heatwave concurrences based on the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 and variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. The results show that the VIC model has high reliability in the simulation of soil moisture and evapotranspiration compared with other well-recognized datasets in the Gan River Basin. The warming level over the Gan River Basin is close to the global warming level. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the multi-model ensemble medians of concurrent events increased by 0.08-0.4 pentads/decade from 2006 to 2099. The uncertainty of concurrent events encompasses a wider range as global temperature increases. Compared to the reference period (1961-2005), drought and heatwave concurrences have increased by more than 50% in the most parts of the basin under 1.5 or 2.0 degrees C of global warming; there is a 20% frequency difference of 0.5 degrees C from 1.5 to 2.0 degrees C. The substantial pentad increases (at least greater than 50%) existed in historical low-pentad-value areas in a 1.5 or 2.0 degrees C world, especially pronounced for a 2.0 degrees C world. The greatest increase in concurrent event pentads came from the 25th percentile values in 1.5 or 2.0 degrees C scenarios. Climatological median pentads of concurrent droughts and heatwaves appear likely to be 9.6-17.6% more frequent in a 2.0 degrees C world than a 1.5 degrees C world with respect to the reference period.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125510
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Huaiyin Normal Univ, Sch Urban & Environm Sci, Huaian 223300, Peoples R China
2.Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China
3.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China
4.NUIST, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ KLME, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change ILCEC, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
5.NUIST, Sch Geog & Remote Sensing, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Zhang, Yuqing,You, Qinglong,Mao, Guangxiong,et al. Short-term concurrent drought and heatwave frequency with 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C global warming in humid subtropical basins: a case study in the Gan River Basin, China[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(7-8):4621-4641
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