globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4356-3
WOS记录号: WOS:000467187600018
论文题名:
Confidence intervals in optimal fingerprinting
作者: DelSole, Timothy1; Trenary, Laurie1; Yan, Xiaoqin2; Tippett, Michael K.3,4
通讯作者: DelSole, Timothy
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:7-8, 页码:4111-4126
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Optimal fingerprinting ; Detection and attribution ; Total least squares
WOS关键词: ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES ; LIKELIHOOD-ESTIMATION ; REGRESSION-MODEL
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Optimal fingerprinting is a standard method for detecting climate changes. Among the uncertainties taken into account by this method, one is the fact that the response to climate forcing is not known exactly, but in practice is estimated from ensemble averages of model simulations. This uncertainty can be taken into account using an Error-in-Variables model (or equivalently, the Total Least Squares method), and can be expressed through confidence intervals. Unfortunately, the predominant paradigm (likelihood ratio theory) for deriving confidence intervals is not guaranteed to work because the number of parameters that are estimated in the Error-in-Variables model grows with the number of observations. This paper discusses various methods for deriving confidence intervals and shows that the widely-used intervals proposed in the seminal paper by Allen and Stott are effectively equivalent to bias-corrected intervals from likelihood ratio theory. A new, computationally simpler, method for computing these intervals is derived. Nevertheless, these confidence intervals are incorrect in the weak-signal regime. This conclusion does not necessarily invalidate previous detection and attribution studies because many such studies lie in the strong-signal regime, for which standard methods give correct confidence intervals. A new diagnostic is introduced to check whether or not a data set lies in the weak-signal regime. Finally, and most importantly, a bootstrap method is shown to give correct confidence intervals in both strong- and weak-signal regimes, and always produces finite confidence intervals, in contrast to the likelihood ratio method which can give unbounded intervals that do not match the actual uncertainty.


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被引频次[WOS]:32   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125521
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.George Mason Univ, Dept Atmospher Ocean & Earth Sci, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA
2.Princeton Univ, Program Atmospher, Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
3.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY USA
4.King Abdulaziz Univ, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Dept Meteorol, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Recommended Citation:
DelSole, Timothy,Trenary, Laurie,Yan, Xiaoqin,et al. Confidence intervals in optimal fingerprinting[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(7-8):4111-4126
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