globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4361-6
WOS记录号: WOS:000467187600009
论文题名:
Quantifying uncertainty in twenty-first century climate change over India
作者: Singh, Ram; AchutaRao, K.
通讯作者: AchutaRao, K.
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:7-8, 页码:3905-3928
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5 ; CESM-LE ; Uncertainty ; India ; Change ; Projections
WOS关键词: MONSOON RAINFALL ; SUMMER MONSOON ; CMIP5 ; PRECIPITATION
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Uncertainties in future changes of temperature and precipitation over the homogenous monsoon regions of India are investigated using the CMIP5 and CESM-LE datasets. The uncertainty is partitioned into epistemic (model) and aleatoric (internal variability) components for each season using the RCP8.5 scenario. The uncertainty in temperature change is dominated by epistemic uncertainty that increases over time. The uncertainty in precipitation change shows a more complex picture. Aleatoric uncertainty can remain quite large and comparable to epistemic uncertainty till the latter part of the twenty-first Century especially during the JJA and SON seasons. Much of the rainfall uncertainty is in the more arid Northwest region with the West Central region (part of the core monsoon area) exhibiting lower uncertainties. Considerable increase in rainfall is seen during the SON season indicating an extended monsoon season. During the DJF season aleatoric uncertainty is much larger than epistemic uncertainty over much of the century and shows considerable decadal scale variability. Using the 40-member CESM-LE ensemble to analyze the influence of ensemble size on aleatoric uncertainty we find that low ensemble sizes can lead to an underestimate of the uncertainty.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125522
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Indian Inst Technol Delhi, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi 110016, India

Recommended Citation:
Singh, Ram,AchutaRao, K.. Quantifying uncertainty in twenty-first century climate change over India[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(7-8):3905-3928
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Singh, Ram]'s Articles
[AchutaRao, K.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Singh, Ram]'s Articles
[AchutaRao, K.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Singh, Ram]‘s Articles
[AchutaRao, K.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.