globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4493-8
WOS记录号: WOS:000465441400054
论文题名:
Future urban rainfall projections considering the impacts of climate change and urbanization with statistical-dynamical integrated approach
作者: Shastri, Hiteshri1,2; Ghosh, Subimal1,3; Paul, Supantha1; Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein4; Helbich, Marco5; Karmakar, Subhankar1,6
通讯作者: Ghosh, Subimal
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:9-10, 页码:6033-6051
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Precipitation downscaling ; Extreme precipitation ; Urbanization ; Mumbai ; India
WOS关键词: NONHYDROSTATIC ATMOSPHERIC MODEL ; LAND-COVER CHANGE ; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; SINGLE-LAYER ; DOWNSCALING TECHNIQUES ; EXTREME RAINFALL ; CANOPY MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATION ; WINTER
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Impacts of global warming and local scale urbanization on precipitation are evident from observations; hence both must be considered in future projections of urban precipitation. Dynamic regional models at a fine spatial resolution can capture the signature of urbanization on precipitation, however simulations for multiple decades are computationally expensive. In contrast, statistical regional models are computationally inexpensive but incapable of assessing the impacts of urbanization due to the stationary relationship between predictors and predictand. This paper aims to develop a unique modelling framework with a demonstration for Mumbai, India, where future urbanization is projected using a Markov Chain Cellular Automata approach, long term projections with climate change impacts are performed using statistical downscaling and urban impacts are simulated with a dynamic regional model for limited number of years covering different precipitation characteristics. The evaluation of the statistical downscaling methodology over historical time period reveals large underestimation of the extreme rainfall, which is improved effectively by applying another regression model, for extreme days. The limited runs of dynamic downscaling models with different stages of urbanization for Mumbai, India, reveal spatially non uniform changes in precipitation, occurring primarily at the higher quantiles. The statistical and dynamical outputs are further integrated using quantile transformation for precipitation projection in Mumbai during 2050s. The projections show dominant impacts of urbanization compared to those from large scale changing patterns. The uniqueness of this computationally efficient framework lies in an integration of global and local factors for precipitation projections through a conjugal statistical-dynamical approach.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125549
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Indian Inst Technol, Interdisciplinary Program Climate Studies, Mumbai 400076, Maharashtra, India
2.Charotar Univ Sci & Technol, CS Patel Inst Technol, MS Patel Deartment Civil Engn, Anand, Gujarat, India
3.Indian Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
4.Tarbiat Modares Univ, Dept GIS & Remote Sensing, Tehran, Iran
5.Univ Utrecht, Dept Human Geog & Spatial Planning, Utrecht, Netherlands
6.Indian Inst Technol, Ctr Environm Sci & Engn, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

Recommended Citation:
Shastri, Hiteshri,Ghosh, Subimal,Paul, Supantha,et al. Future urban rainfall projections considering the impacts of climate change and urbanization with statistical-dynamical integrated approach[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(9-10):6033-6051
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