globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4463-1
WOS记录号: WOS:000465441400021
论文题名:
Present-day status and future projection of spring Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP5 model simulations
作者: Chen, Shangfeng1; Wu, Renguang1,3; Song, Linye2; Chen, Wen1,3
通讯作者: Wu, Renguang
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:9-10, 页码:5431-5449
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Spring ; Eurasian surface air temperature ; The dominant mode ; CMIP5 ; Future projection
WOS关键词: ASIAN WINTER MONSOON ; TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC ; ARCTIC OSCILLATION ; SUMMER ; CHINA ; VARIABILITY ; PERFORMANCE ; NORTHERN ; IMPACT ; HEAT
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The present study evaluates the performance of 19 climate models that participated in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) in reproducing climatology, the standard deviation, and the dominant mode of spring surface air temperature (SAT) variations over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia based on historical runs. Future change of the Eurasian spring SAT under the anthropogenic global warming is also examined by comparing the historical and RCP4.5 run. All the 19 CMIP5 models capture well the observed spatial structure of climatological spring SAT, with the pattern correlation coefficients all larger than 0.94. However, most of the models tend to underestimate the SAT over north Europe and north Siberia and overestimate the SAT south of 50 degrees N. There exists large inter-model spreads in the standard deviation of the spring SAT. Most of the models capture realistically the observed dominant mode of interannual variations of spring SAT. Analyses show that the ability of a CMIP5 model in capturing the dominant mode of Eurasian spring SAT variations is connected with the model's performance in representing the observed atmospheric circulation anomalies related to the Arctic Oscillation and the dominant mode of the atmospheric variations over Eurasia. Six best models are selected based on the ability in simulating the dominant mode of the spring SAT variations in the historical runs. These six models project an increase in the SAT climatology but a decrease in the standard deviation over most of Eurasia. These six models project a decrease in the explained variance as well as in the amplitude of the spring SAT and atmospheric anomalies related to the dominant mode.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125555
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Ctr Monsoon Syst Res, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
2.China Meteorol Adm, Inst Urban Meteorol, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Chen, Shangfeng,Wu, Renguang,Song, Linye,et al. Present-day status and future projection of spring Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP5 model simulations[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(9-10):5431-5449
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