globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
WOS记录号: WOS:000471917800005
论文题名:
A framework for predicting the effects of climate change on the annual distribution of Lyme borreliosis incidences
作者: Bede-Fazekas, Akos1,2; Trajer, Attila J.3
通讯作者: Bede-Fazekas, Akos
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GLOBAL WARMING
ISSN: 1758-2083
EISSN: 1758-2091
出版年: 2019
卷: 18, 期:1, 页码:81-102
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Lyme borreliosis ; climate change ; Ixodes ricinus ; tick-borne encephalitis ; prediction
WOS关键词: TICK-BORNE ENCEPHALITIS ; IXODES-RICINUS TICKS ; SEASONAL ACTIVITY ; ENDEMIC AREA ; DISEASE ; PREVALENCE ; RISK ; TEMPERATURE ; SCAPULARIS ; ABUNDANCE
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Global climate change is predicted to affect both the spatial and annual distributions of vector-borne diseases. Tick-borne diseases are particularly sensitive to the changing climatic conditions. Modelling them is, however, challenging due to the input-intensity of these models. A framework with low number of inputs (easily accessible weekly temperature data and week numbers) on modelling the seasonality of Lyme borreliosis incidences is presented. The modelling framework enables predicting the annual distribution of Ixodes ricinus tick's biting activity and Lyme borreliosis in two cascading phases, incorporating a population dynamics approach. The model is calibrated for Hungary as a case study, for the period of 1998-2008, using tick-borne encephalitis series as a proxy for biting activity. Prediction to the future period of 2081-2100 is also provided. Climate change may significantly alter both the annual distribution of I. ricinus activity and that of the Lyme borreliosis incidences. The currently unimodal annual distribution of Lyme borreliosis is predicted to become bimodal with a long summer pause and a spring maximum shifted 8 weeks earlier.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125729
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.MTA Ctr Ecol Res, Inst Ecol & Bot, Alkotmany U 2-4, H-2163 Vacratot, Hungary
2.MTA Ctr Ecol Res, GINOP Sustainable Ecosyst Grp, Klebelsberg Kuno U 3, H-8237 Tihany, Hungary
3.Univ Pannonia, Dept Limnol, Egyet U 10, H-8200 Veszprem, Hungary

Recommended Citation:
Bede-Fazekas, Akos,Trajer, Attila J.. A framework for predicting the effects of climate change on the annual distribution of Lyme borreliosis incidences[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GLOBAL WARMING,2019-01-01,18(1):81-102
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