globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268819001316
WOS记录号: WOS:000477760400001
论文题名:
Effects of large-scale oceanic phenomena on non-cholera vibriosis incidence in the United States: implications for climate change
作者: Logar-Henderson, Chloe1; Ling, Rebecca1; Tuite, Ashleigh R.1; Fisman, David N.1,2
通讯作者: Fisman, David N.
刊名: EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
ISSN: 0950-2688
EISSN: 1469-4409
出版年: 2019
卷: 147
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; foodborne illness ; Vibrio fluvialis ; Vibrio parahaemolyticus ; Vibrio vulnificus
WOS关键词: NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; INFECTIOUS-DISEASE ; CHOLERA ; PARAHAEMOLYTICUS ; DYNAMICS ; IMPACT ; WATER
WOS学科分类: Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases
WOS研究方向: Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases
英文摘要:

Non-cholera Vibrio (NCV) species are important causes of disease. These pathogens are thermophilic and climate change could increase the risk of NCV infection. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a 'natural experiment' that may presage ocean warming effects on disease incidence. In order to evaluate possible climatic contributions to observed increases in NCV infection, we obtained NCV case counts for the United States from publicly available surveillance data. Trends and impacts of large-scale oceanic phenomena, including ENSO, were evaluated using negative binomial and distributed non-linear lag models (DNLM). Associations between latitude and changing risk were evaluated with meta-regression. Trend models demonstrated expected seasonality (P < 0.001) and a 7% (6.1%-8.1%) annual increase in incidence from 1999 to 2014. DNLM demonstrated increased vibriosis risk following ENSO conditions over the subsequent 12 months (relative risk 1.940, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.298-2.901). The 'relative-relative risk' (RRR) of annual disease incidence increased with latitude (RRR per 10 degrees increase 1.066, 95% CI 1.027-1.107). We conclude that NCV risk in the United States is impacted by ocean warming, which is likely to intensify with climate change, increasing NCV risk in vulnerable populations.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/126010
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Toronto, Dana Lana Sch Publ Hlth, Toronto, ON, Canada
2.Univ Toronto, Fac Med, Dept Med, Div Infect Dis, Toronto, ON, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Logar-Henderson, Chloe,Ling, Rebecca,Tuite, Ashleigh R.,et al. Effects of large-scale oceanic phenomena on non-cholera vibriosis incidence in the United States: implications for climate change[J]. EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION,2019-01-01,147
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