globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.3354/cr01548
WOS记录号: WOS:000482741500004
论文题名:
The impact of soil initialization on regional decadal climate predictions in Europe
作者: Breil, Marcus; Laube, Natalie; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Schaedler, Gerd
通讯作者: Breil, Marcus
刊名: CLIMATE RESEARCH
ISSN: 0936-577X
EISSN: 1616-1572
出版年: 2019
卷: 77, 期:2, 页码:139-154
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Soil initialization ; Regional climate predictions ; Land surface model ; COSMO-CLM
WOS关键词: LAND-SURFACE MODEL ; ECMWF MODEL ; MOISTURE ; PARAMETERIZATIONS ; SIMULATIONS ; VARIABILITY ; VALIDATION ; RAINFALL ; WEATHER ; CORDEX
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Inaccuracies in soil initialization, caused by unbalanced soil conditions, are one possible reason for biases in regional climate predictions. Therefore, in the present study, stand-alone simulations with a land surface model are performed in order to create balanced soil conditions. The impact of different atmospheric forcing data on the quality of the stand-alone simulation is evaluated by comparing the results to observations. The results reveal that stand-alone simulations driven by the atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim give the best results in terms of the correlation to observed soil temperatures and soil water contents. Based on these results, a regional climate simulation is initialized with these balanced soil conditions and compared to a reference run with unbalanced soil. The results show that the soil initialization of decadal climate simulations generally affects the spatial variability of summer precipitation in Europe. However, no systematic added value of the initialization with balanced soil conditions is evident for precipitation. Still, a clear added value can be observed for the simulated summer temperatures, especially in warm and semi-arid regions like the Iberian Peninsula. Since the balanced soil initialization contains less soil water than the unbalanced one, this simulation is able to reproduce the characteristic drought stress in summer in a more realistic way. We conclude that proper soil initialization can lead to potentially better decadal predictions, particularly for warm and semi-arid regions. An accurate soil initialization may therefore become essential, especially in European areas that are expected to become warmer and drier in summer due to climate change, e.g. Central and Eastern Europe.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/126018
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, D-76344 Eggenstein Leopoldshalen, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Breil, Marcus,Laube, Natalie,Pinto, Joaquim G.,et al. The impact of soil initialization on regional decadal climate predictions in Europe[J]. CLIMATE RESEARCH,2019-01-01,77(2):139-154
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