globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s11629-018-4957-7
WOS记录号: WOS:000456251500002
论文题名:
Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming
作者: Nojarov, Peter1; Gachev, Emil2; Grunewald, Karsten3
通讯作者: Nojarov, Peter
刊名: JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
ISSN: 1672-6316
EISSN: 1993-0321
出版年: 2019
卷: 16, 期:1, 页码:16-29
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate warming ; Glacieret ; Pirin Mountains ; Statistical modeling ; Glacieret area ; Projection
WOS关键词: DEBELI-NAMET GLACIER ; TRIGLAV GLACIER ; ALPS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

This research reveals relationships between climate variables and inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret located in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains. The study period is 1993-2017. The correlations are identified using statistical methods. Also, a statistical model is constructed, including some climate variables as predictors. Despite the evident decrease of the glacieret's size in the period from the 1950s onwards, the long-term trends for the last decades have been insignificant. The main climatic factors influencing the inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret are air temperature, precipitation, zonal and meridional winds and relative humidity. With respect to the dynamics in the area of the glacieret, the important trends in the different climate variables are those of the warm period air temperatures and zonal (u) wind. They also determine to a great extent its future development by acting in two opposite directions-rising temperatures in the warm period will lead to a rapid decrease of its area by the end of the melting season, while the change of wind direction from west to east in the warm period will increase its area. The influence of the zonal wind in the warm period is explained mainly by the location of the glacieret in the cirque. Generally, the glacieret is tilted downwards from west to east. Thus, westerly winds facilitate blowing away the snow from the surface of the glacieret, assisting its melting in the warm period. Easterly winds do not have such an effect. The combination of the opposite effects of these two most important climate variables leads to the most likely scenario for the future development of the glacieret, according to which by the middle of this century it is expected to turn into a semi-permanent snow patch, which disappears after some summers, and by the end of the century to completely melt every year before the end of the melting season.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/126087
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Bulgarian Acad Sci, Natl Inst Geophys Geodesy & Geog, Akad G Bonchev Str,Bl 3,Room 327, BU-1113 Sofia, Bulgaria
2.South West Univ Neofit Rilski, Ivan Mihailov Str 66, Blagoevgrad 2700, Bulgaria
3.Leibniz Inst Ecol Urban & Reg Dev, Weberpl 1, D-01217 Dresden, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Nojarov, Peter,Gachev, Emil,Grunewald, Karsten. Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2019-01-01,16(1):16-29
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Nojarov, Peter]'s Articles
[Gachev, Emil]'s Articles
[Grunewald, Karsten]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Nojarov, Peter]'s Articles
[Gachev, Emil]'s Articles
[Grunewald, Karsten]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Nojarov, Peter]‘s Articles
[Gachev, Emil]‘s Articles
[Grunewald, Karsten]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.