globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s13364-018-0384-y
WOS记录号: WOS:000455666000005
论文题名:
Modeling the response of an endangered flagship predator to climate change in Iran
作者: Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Reza1; Naghipour, Ali Asghar1; Haidarian, Maryam2; Khorozyan, Igor3
通讯作者: Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Reza
刊名: MAMMAL RESEARCH
ISSN: 2199-2401
EISSN: 2199-241X
出版年: 2019
卷: 64, 期:1, 页码:39-51
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate adaptability ; Conservation ; Fragmentation ; Habitat loss ; Persian leopard ; Zagros
WOS关键词: LEOPARD PANTHERA-PARDUS ; PERSIAN LEOPARD ; SNOW LEOPARD ; BIODIVERSITY HOTSPOTS ; NATIONAL-PARK ; CONSERVATION ; MANAGEMENT ; HABITAT ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; PREDICTION
WOS学科分类: Zoology
WOS研究方向: Zoology
英文摘要:

Land use changes in suitable areas, habitat loss, and fragmentation are likely to be the most important consequences of climate change for wildlife populations. Yet, little is known about the response of large carnivores to climate change, globally and regionally. In this study, we utilized the ensemble modeling based on six species distribution models in order to predict the spatial vulnerability of the globally endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) to climate change in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, a semi-arid region in Iran. We showed that about 12.12 to 22.38% of leopard habitats in the area may be lost by 2050 due to climate change under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) within the framework of two general circulation models (GCMs). In contrast, 1.87 to 13.01% of currently unsuitable habitats can become suitable with climate change. Overall, a considerable portion of the leopard range will remain intact under global warming, but still habitat loss to climate change will vary from 5.89 to 14.59%. Thus, large-scale but locally focused and flexible conservation strategies should be applied in intact and sensitive areas so that to prevent the intensification of anthropogenic threats such as overgrazing and forest degradation from collection of firewood, charcoal, and medicinal plants under changing climate.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/126258
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Shahrekord Univ, Fac Nat Resources & Earth Sci, Shahrekord, Iran
2.Sari Univ Agr Sci & Nat Resources, Fac Nat Resources, Sari, Iran
3.Georg August Univ Gottingen, JF Blumenbach Inst Zool & Anthropol, Workgrp Endangered Species, Gottingen, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Reza,Naghipour, Ali Asghar,Haidarian, Maryam,et al. Modeling the response of an endangered flagship predator to climate change in Iran[J]. MAMMAL RESEARCH,2019-01-01,64(1):39-51
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