globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1080/15230430.2019.1585175
WOS记录号: WOS:000486105800009
论文题名:
Hierarchical modeling of space-time dendroclimatic fields: Comparing a frequentist and a Bayesian approach
作者: Cameletti, Michela1; Biondi, Franco2
通讯作者: Biondi, Franco
刊名: ARCTIC ANTARCTIC AND ALPINE RESEARCH
ISSN: 1523-0430
EISSN: 1938-4246
出版年: 2019
卷: 51, 期:1, 页码:115-127
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Tree rings ; STEM ; BARCAST ; climate reconstruction ; autocorrelation
WOS关键词: RECONSTRUCTING CLIMATE ANOMALIES ; MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ; REGRESSION-MODELS ; STANDARDIZATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; ALGORITHM
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Geography, Physical
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Physical Geography
英文摘要:

Environmental processes, including climatic impacts in cold regions, are typically acting at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Hierarchical models are a flexible statistical tool that allows for decomposing spatiotemporal processes in simpler components connected by conditional probabilistic relationships. This article reviews two hierarchical models that have been applied to treering proxy records of climate to model their space-time structure: STEM (Spatio-Temporal Expectation Maximization) and BARCAST (Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time). Both models account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation by including latent spatiotemporal processes, and they both take into consideration measurement and model errors, while they differ in their inferential approach. STEM adopts the frequentist perspective, and its parameters are estimated through the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, with uncertainty assessed through bootstrap resampling. BARCAST is developed in the Bayesian framework, and relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for sampling values from posterior probability distributions of interest. STEM also explicitly includes covariates in the process model definition. As hierarchical modeling keeps contributing to the analysis of complex ecological and environmental processes, proxy reconstructions are likely to improve, thereby providing better constraints on future climate change scenarios and their impacts over cold regions.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/126295
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Bergamo, Dept Management Econ & Quantitat Methods, Bergamo, Italy
2.Univ Nevada, Dept Nat Resources & Environm Sci, DendroLab, Reno, NV 89557 USA

Recommended Citation:
Cameletti, Michela,Biondi, Franco. Hierarchical modeling of space-time dendroclimatic fields: Comparing a frequentist and a Bayesian approach[J]. ARCTIC ANTARCTIC AND ALPINE RESEARCH,2019-01-01,51(1):115-127
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