全球变化知识资源中心

Aim: Grape (Vitis vinifera L.) phenology is mainly temperature-driven. Consequently, the shift in thermal conditions due to climate change is supposed to have a distinct influence on grape phenology, grape maturity and wine typicity. This study aims to investigate (i) the future phenological development, as well as (ii) the consequences on the temperature conditions in specific phenophases under the conditions of the Luxembourg grapegrowing region.

Methods and Results: A budburst model and a phenological model were combined with an ensemble of ten regional climate change projections for Luxembourg. Analyses comparing four 30-year time spans (reference period: 1971-2000; present: 2001-2030; near future: 2031-2060; far future: 2061-2090) demonstrated that each of the 27 phenological stages according to BBCH code is projected to be reached significantly earlier than in the reference period. According to these projections, the length of phenophases at the early stages is not affected, whereas the ripening period length is significantly shortened. The air temperature increase in the ripening period (far future compared to reference period: + 4.6 degrees C to + 5.3 degrees C) is projected to be markedly higher than in the annual averages (+ 2.6 degrees C).

Conclusions: Since (i) air temperatures are generally projected to increase in the future and (ii) the ripening period will take place earlier (usually in the wanner parts of the season), climate change is implicating a two-fold impact on air temperature increase in the ripening period.

Significance and impact of the study: This two-fold impact potentially threatens the wine typicity of the traditional grapegrowing regions and therefore calls for specific adaptation strategies.