globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1071/WF18083
WOS记录号: WOS:000465313900003
论文题名:
Analysis of the uncertainty of fuel model parameters in wildland fire modelling of a boreal forest in north-east China
作者: Cai, Longyan1; He, Hong S.2,3; Liang, Yu1; Wu, Zhiwei1; Huang, Chao1
通讯作者: Liang, Yu
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE
ISSN: 1049-8001
EISSN: 1448-5516
出版年: 2019
卷: 28, 期:3, 页码:205-215
语种: 英语
英文关键词: FARSITE ; fire behaviour ; fuel model ; uncertainty analysis ; wildfire modelling
WOS关键词: SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; 1ST-ORDER ANALYSIS ; NONPOINT-SOURCE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; BEHAVIOR ; LANDSCAPE ; SPREAD ; ACCUMULATION ; SIMULATION ; MANAGEMENT
WOS学科分类: Forestry
WOS研究方向: Forestry
英文摘要:

Fire propagation is inevitably affected by fuel-model parameters during wildfire simulations and the uncertainty of the fuel-model parameters makes forecasting accurate fire behaviour very difficult. In this study, three different methods (Morris screening, first-order analysis and the Monte Carlo method) were used to analyse the uncertainty of fuel-model parameters with FARSITE model. The results of the uncertainty analysis showed that only a few fuel-model parameters markedly influenced the uncertainty of the model outputs, and many of the fuel-model parameters had little or no effect. The fire-spread rate is the driving force behind the uncertainty of other fire behaviours. Thus, the highly uncertain fuel-model parameters associated with spread rate should be used cautiously in wildfire simulations. Monte Carlo results indicated that the relationship between model input and output was non-linear and neglecting fuel-model parameter uncertainty of the model would magnify fire behaviours. Additionally, fuel-model parameters have high input uncertainty. Therefore, fuel-model parameters must be calibrated against actual fires. The highly uncertain fuel-model parameters with high spatial-temporal variability consisted of fuel-bed depth, live-shrub loading and 1-h time-lag loading are preferentially chosen as parameters to calibrate several wildfires.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/126608
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Appl Ecol, CAS Key Lab Forest Ecol & Management, 72 Wenhua Rd, Shenyang 110016, Liaoning, Peoples R China
2.Univ Missouri, Sch Nat Resources, Columbia, MO 65211 USA
3.Northeast Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Changchun 130024, Jilin, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Cai, Longyan,He, Hong S.,Liang, Yu,et al. Analysis of the uncertainty of fuel model parameters in wildland fire modelling of a boreal forest in north-east China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE,2019-01-01,28(3):205-215
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