Fire propagation is inevitably affected by fuel-model parameters during wildfire simulations and the uncertainty of the fuel-model parameters makes forecasting accurate fire behaviour very difficult. In this study, three different methods (Morris screening, first-order analysis and the Monte Carlo method) were used to analyse the uncertainty of fuel-model parameters with FARSITE model. The results of the uncertainty analysis showed that only a few fuel-model parameters markedly influenced the uncertainty of the model outputs, and many of the fuel-model parameters had little or no effect. The fire-spread rate is the driving force behind the uncertainty of other fire behaviours. Thus, the highly uncertain fuel-model parameters associated with spread rate should be used cautiously in wildfire simulations. Monte Carlo results indicated that the relationship between model input and output was non-linear and neglecting fuel-model parameter uncertainty of the model would magnify fire behaviours. Additionally, fuel-model parameters have high input uncertainty. Therefore, fuel-model parameters must be calibrated against actual fires. The highly uncertain fuel-model parameters with high spatial-temporal variability consisted of fuel-bed depth, live-shrub loading and 1-h time-lag loading are preferentially chosen as parameters to calibrate several wildfires.
1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Appl Ecol, CAS Key Lab Forest Ecol & Management, 72 Wenhua Rd, Shenyang 110016, Liaoning, Peoples R China 2.Univ Missouri, Sch Nat Resources, Columbia, MO 65211 USA 3.Northeast Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Changchun 130024, Jilin, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation:
Cai, Longyan,He, Hong S.,Liang, Yu,et al. Analysis of the uncertainty of fuel model parameters in wildland fire modelling of a boreal forest in north-east China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE,2019-01-01,28(3):205-215