全球变化知识资源中心

Species distribution models are powerful tools for predicting species distributions and for assessing whether particular areas are at risk from invasive weeds, but they may produce different results when different climate data scales are used in the estimate. The results of species distribution models were compared across different spatial scales, and then evaluated the spread of invasive weeds in Chinese nature reserves under several models of climate change. We used Maxent software to estimate the potential spread of 10 phylogenetically diverse alien weeds in the largest 333 Chinese nature reserves. The estimates of invasive weed spread in nature reserves were not stable against changes in spatial scale. The 2.5 arc-minute data was selected to evaluate the ability of invasive weeds to spread in Chinese nature reserves under climate change. Nature reserves with a high risk of invasive weed spread were mainly distributed in southern China We found a significant relationship between increased invasive weed spread and low and high concentration scenarios, suggesting we should prioritize the prevention and control of invasive weeds now to lessen their impact on nature reserves in the future. It is suggested that other studies may benefit from integrating different scales into the distribution models of invasive weeds.