globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2018.12.005
WOS记录号: WOS:000460811100004
论文题名:
Societal risk assessment of transportation networks under uncertainties due to climate change and population growth
作者: Yang, David Y.; Frangopol, Dan M.
通讯作者: Frangopol, Dan M.
刊名: STRUCTURAL SAFETY
ISSN: 0167-4730
EISSN: 1879-3355
出版年: 2019
卷: 78, 页码:33-47
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Population growth ; Transportation network ; Robust traffic assignment ; Risk assessment
WOS关键词: BRIDGES ; DEMAND ; DETERIORATION ; MANAGEMENT ; IMPACTS
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil
WOS研究方向: Engineering
英文摘要:

Climate change and population growth can affect the supply and the demand sides of transportation networks, respectively. Rational assessment of societal risk of transportation networks should consider these effects, both of which are uncertain in nature. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to assess societal risk of transportation networks subjected to uncertainties due to climate change and future population growth. The method is posited on a robust traffic assignment model using the expected residual minimization approach. A novel algorithm, combining smoothing method, quasi-Newton technique, and Latin hypercube sampling, is developed for the efficient implementation of the proposed method. The proposed method can produce a deterministic traffic flow pattern that deviates as little as possible from the traffic flow patterns associated with all future scenarios. The obtained traffic flow pattern can then be used to estimate societal risk of transportation networks. A number of examples, including a real-world highway bridge network in Camden County, New Jersey, are provided in this paper to demonstrate the efficiency, effectiveness, and application of the proposed method. It is found from the examples that (a) the proposed method is more efficient and robust than existing algorithms for robust traffic assignment under uncertainties, and (b) climate change and population growth can significantly alter the traffic pattern in a transportation network and thus increase the societal risk posed upon traffic users.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/126768
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Lehigh Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, ATLSS Engn Res Ctr, Bethlehem, PA 18015 USA

Recommended Citation:
Yang, David Y.,Frangopol, Dan M.. Societal risk assessment of transportation networks under uncertainties due to climate change and population growth[J]. STRUCTURAL SAFETY,2019-01-01,78:33-47
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