Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
; Infectious Diseases
WOS研究方向:
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
; Infectious Diseases
英文摘要:
Dengue infection in China has increased dramatically in recent years. Guangdong province (main city Guangzhou) accounted for more than 94% of all dengue cases in the 2014 outbreak. Currently, there is no existing effective vaccine and most efforts of control are focused on the vector itself. This study aimed to evaluate different dengue management strategies in a region where this disease is emerging. This work was done by establishing a dengue simulation model for Guangzhou to enable the testing of control strategies aimed at vector control and vaccination. For that purpose, the computer-based dengue simulation model (DENSiM) together with the Container-Inhabiting Mosquito Simulation Model (CIMSiM) has been used to create a working dengue simulation model for the city of Guangzhou. In order to achieve the best model fit against historical surveillance data, virus introduction scenarios were run and then matched against the actual dengue surveillance data. The simulation model was able to predict retrospective outbreaks with a sensitivity of 0.18 and a specificity of 0.98. This new parameterisation can now be used to evaluate the potential impact of different control strategies on dengue transmission in Guangzhou. The knowledge generated from this research would provide useful information for authorities regarding the historic patterns of dengue outbreaks, as well as the effectiveness of different disease management strategies.
1.Univ South Australia, Sch Hlth Sci, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia 2.Minist Hlth Malaysia, Inst Med Res, Med Entomol Unit, Infect Dis Res Ctr, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia 3.Univ South Australia, Sch Pharm & Med Sci, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Mincham, G.,Baldock, K. L.,Rozilawati, H.,et al. Development of a mechanistic dengue simulation model for Guangzhou[J]. EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION,2019-01-01,147