globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.3390/atmos10010031
WOS记录号: WOS:000459133000031
论文题名:
Selection of an Optimal Distribution Curve for Non-Stationary Flood Series
作者: Chen, Xiaohong1,2; Ye, Changqing3; Zhang, Jiaming1,2; Xu, Chongyu4; Zhang, Lijuan1,2; Tang, Yihan1,2
通讯作者: Ye, Changqing
刊名: ATMOSPHERE
ISSN: 2073-4433
出版年: 2019
卷: 10, 期:1
语种: 英语
英文关键词: time-varying statistical parameters ; frequency analysis ; probability distribution function ; extreme value flow ; non-stationarity
WOS关键词: PEARL RIVER DELTA ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; NON-STATIONARITY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; BASIN ; STATISTICS ; RESPONSES ; POWER
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The stationarity assumption of hydrological processes has long been compromised by human disturbances in river basins. The traditional hydrological extreme-value analysis method, i.e., extreme value theory which assumes stationarity of the time series, needs to be amended in order to adapt to these changes. In this paper, taking the East River basin, south China as a case study, a framework was put forward for selection of a suitable distribution curve for non-stationary flood series by using the time-varying moments (TVM). Data used for this study are the annual maximum daily flow of 1954-2009 at the Longchuan, Heyuan and Boluo Stations in the study basin. Five types of distribution curves and eight kinds of trend models, for a combination of 40 models, were evaluated and compared. The results showed that the flood series and optimal distribution curves in the East River basin have been significantly impacted by a continuously changing environment. With the increase of the degree of human influence, the thinner tails of distributions are more suitable for fitting the observed flow data, and the trend models are changed from CP (mean and standard deviation fitted by parabolic trend model) to CL (mean and standard deviation fitted by linear trend model) from upstream to downstream of the catchment. The design flood flow corresponding to a return period of more than 10 years at the Longchuan, Heyuan and Boluo Stations was overestimated by more than 28.36%, 53.24% and 26.06%, respectively if the non-stationarity of series is not considered and the traditional method is still used for calculation. The study reveals that in a changing environment, more advanced statistical methods that explicitly account for the non-stationarity of extreme flood characteristics are required.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/126851
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Dept Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China
2.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Key Lab Water Cycle & Water Secur Southern China, Guangdong High Educ Inst, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China
3.Hainan Univ, Inst Trop Agr & Forestry, Haikou 570228, Hainan, Peoples R China
4.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, N-0315 Oslo, Norway

Recommended Citation:
Chen, Xiaohong,Ye, Changqing,Zhang, Jiaming,et al. Selection of an Optimal Distribution Curve for Non-Stationary Flood Series[J]. ATMOSPHERE,2019-01-01,10(1)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Chen, Xiaohong]'s Articles
[Ye, Changqing]'s Articles
[Zhang, Jiaming]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Chen, Xiaohong]'s Articles
[Ye, Changqing]'s Articles
[Zhang, Jiaming]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Chen, Xiaohong]‘s Articles
[Ye, Changqing]‘s Articles
[Zhang, Jiaming]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.