globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s11625-018-0642-6
WOS记录号: WOS:000456977800017
论文题名:
Scenario-based land change modelling in the Indian Sundarban delta: an exploratory analysis of plausible alternative regional futures
作者: DasGupta, Rajarshi1,2; Hashimoto, Shizuka1,2; Okuro, Toshiya1; Basu, Mrittika1,3
通讯作者: DasGupta, Rajarshi
刊名: SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
ISSN: 1862-4065
EISSN: 1862-4057
出版年: 2019
卷: 14, 期:1, 页码:221-240
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Socio-ecological production landscapes and seascapes (SEPLS) ; Landscape scenarios ; MLP-MCA model ; Story-and-simulation approach (SAS) ; Mangroves
WOS关键词: ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; URBAN ; SUSTAINABILITY ; CONSERVATION ; IMPACT ; AREAS ; AQUACULTURE ; ADAPTATION ; STRATEGIES
WOS学科分类: Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

The paper narrates an empirical research conducted for developing four alternative socio-ecological scenarios for the lower Gangetic delta in India (aka the Indian Sundarban). We used the Story and Simulation (SAS) approach' to build four short-term, landscape-scale scenarios for 2030, which include a Business as Usual (BAU)', and three alternative scenarios, namely Market forces', Delta Republic' and Green Sundarban'. The storylines were built after careful screening of existing development and conservation plans, as well as by consulting local government officials. The storylines were then simulated using the Multi-Layer Perceptron-Markov Chain Analysis (MLP-MCA) model, with a multitude of factors, constraints, and attributes for each scenario. Historical and current land use maps of 2006 and 2016, derived from Landsat series (ETM+ and OLI), were used as the fundamental input to the model, which were also utilized to locate decadal changes, create several independent driver variables, calculate transition potentials and ultimately to develop future land use maps. To generate the scenarios, we used a Linear Programming (LP)-based land demand optimization method to alter the transition potential matrix. Our results indicated considerable loss of mud/tidal flats and viz.-a-viz. increase in river/water areas under all the four scenarios. We further observed moderate to a significant expansion of aquaculture for all the scenarios, with an almost two-fold increase under the Market forces scenario. In addition, three of the four scenarios indicated moderate loss of mangroves. The future extent of mangroves may vary from 1997.92km(2) (BAU) to 2172.25km(2) (Green Sundarban), which indicates to 3.72% overall decline (0.31% decline/year) to 4.67% (or 0.38% increase/year) overall gain from the present extent. As such, the Green Sundarban scenario was identified to the best possible pathway to serve the conservation interests and future sustainability of the delta. The results from the scenario analysis remain imperative to understand, plan and prepare for the plausible alternative regional futures, thereby optimizing conservation and development through proactive policy planning.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/126973
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Agr & Life Sci, Dept Ecosyst Studies, Lab Landscape Ecol & Planning,Bunkyo Ku, Yayoi 1-1-1, Tokyo 1138657, Japan
2.Inst Global Environm Strategies, Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan
3.United Nations Univ, Inst Adv Study Sustainabil, Tokyo, Japan

Recommended Citation:
DasGupta, Rajarshi,Hashimoto, Shizuka,Okuro, Toshiya,et al. Scenario-based land change modelling in the Indian Sundarban delta: an exploratory analysis of plausible alternative regional futures[J]. SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE,2019-01-01,14(1):221-240
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