globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.11.005
WOS记录号: WOS:000455694400041
论文题名:
Identifying fit-for-purpose lumped surrogate models for large urban drainage systems using GLUE
作者: Thrysoe, Cecilie; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Borup, Morten
通讯作者: Thrysoe, Cecilie
刊名: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN: 0022-1694
EISSN: 1879-2707
出版年: 2019
卷: 568, 页码:517-533
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Hydraulic modelling ; Surrogate models ; Urban drainage ; Computational time ; Uncertainty ; GLUE
WOS关键词: PLUVIAL FLOOD RISK ; PREDICTIVE CONTROL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; UNCERTAINTY ; IDENTIFICATION ; CALIBRATION ; INUNDATION ; FRAMEWORK ; NETWORKS
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Distributed physically based models (DPMs) have become the standard tool for urban drainage modelling. However, high computational demands limit these in applications where fast or multiple simulations are needed. This paper presents simple fit-for-purpose cheaper-to-run surrogate models (SMs) for pipe network simulations which are validated against a DPM. The SMs are set up by lumping the DPM network into compartments in which the volume of water is governed by mass balances. Outgoing discharges to downstream compartment(s) and surcharging are computed from unambiguous volume-discharge curves. The SMs are applied on a 45 km(2) catchment, Elster Creek in Melbourne, Australia. The number of simulated states and simulation times are reduced by approximately 3 and 6 orders of magnitude, respectively. Different SM complexities are examined. The simplest SM using steady state training data performed well with NSE of 0.98 for volume in the most upstream compartment. When emulating the aggregated surcharge from that compartment, the SM captured all surcharge events correctly. NSE improved from 0.35 to 0.84 when subdividing the compartment into 17 subcompartments. Uncertainty of SM parameters was examined using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. Two different sampling methods were applied. Limits of acceptability for real-time control, warning and planning, resulted in many accepted models upstream and few to none in downstream backwater-prone areas. All applications showed SM uncertainty bands within expected uncertainty bands for DPM, supporting the use of a simpler conceptual model in fit-for-purpose modelling in urban water systems when computational demands of DPMs are prohibitive.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/127132
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Tech Univ Denmark, Dept Environm Engn DTU Environm, Urban Water Syst Sect, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark

Recommended Citation:
Thrysoe, Cecilie,Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten,Borup, Morten. Identifying fit-for-purpose lumped surrogate models for large urban drainage systems using GLUE[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2019-01-01,568:517-533
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