全球变化知识资源中心

Public drinking water supply increasingly has to deal with challenges resulting from climate change and transformation processes related to recent demographic and economic developments. Against this background, forecasts play an important role as basis for efficient infrastructure planning and system operation. However, traditional per capita-planning methods are not suitable anymore as forecast method and new concepts for forecasting household water demand are needed. This paper introduces a multi-scale approach for modelling and forecasting private household water demand. Based on a household survey, the major driving factors for water demand can be identified and modelled on a micro scale. By using the method of up-scaling, the results then can be generalised and transferred to the level of communities. Finally, water demand can be simulated and forecasted on a regional level, such as a river catchment or the supply area of water utilities. In addition, this paper exemplifies the water demand modelling approach using a case study from Germany focusing on the micro scale. Furthermore, modern IT-based approaches to Demand Side Management in the water sector using mobile devices, applications related to the internet of things and digital media are presented.