globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2093-3
WOS记录号: WOS:000455401400008
论文题名:
Climate Change Impact Assessment on Blue and Green Water by Coupling of Representative CMIP5 Climate Models with Physical Based Hydrological Model
作者: Pandey, Brij Kishor1; Khare, Deepak1; Kawasaki, Akiyuki2; Mishra, Prabhash K.3
通讯作者: Pandey, Brij Kishor
刊名: WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 0920-4741
EISSN: 1573-1650
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:1, 页码:141-158
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; SWAT ; Representative concentration pathways ; Green water ; Blue water ; CMIP5
WOS关键词: BIAS CORRECTION ; NARMADA RIVER ; BASIN ; SIMULATIONS ; FREQUENCY ; RAINFALL ; QUALITY ; INDIA ; SWAT ; FLOW
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Climatic changes have altered hydrological and climatic parameters worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. In order to maintain the sustainable development and acquire the knowledge of water availability, climatic projection must be coupled with hydrological models. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models output were integrated with a calibrated hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) to evaluate the potential effect of climate change on green and blue water over Upper Narmada river Basin (UNB). Therefore, top three representative climate models (MIROC5, CNRM-CM5 and MPI-ESM-LR) from 24 CMIP5 climate models were selected for hydrological modelling. Selected representative climate model outputs were bias corrected by distribution mapping to remove systematic bias correction. Multi-site model calibration approaches indicated Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Coefficient of Determination (R-2) as 0.77 and 0.76 for calibration (1978-1995), and 0.73 and 0.70 for validation (1996-2005), respectively. Calibrated model was run for baseline period (1970-2000) and three futuristic period P1 (2011-2040), P2 (2041-2070) and P3 (2071-2100) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results indicated annual precipitation decreasing under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios changes in green and blue water varying from 16.22 to -14.10% (CNRM,P3) under RCP4.5 and from 38.25 to -22.57% under RCP8.5 with reference to baseline scenario. This study established the sensitivity of UNB to future climatic changes employing projections from CMIP5 climate models and exhibited an approach that applied multiple climate model outputs to estimate potential change over the river basin.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/127148
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Indian Inst Technol Roorkee, Dept Water Resources Dev & Management, Roorkee, Uttrakhand, India
2.Univ Tokyo, Dept Civil Engn, Tokyo, Japan
3.Natl Inst Hydrol, Water Resources Syst Div, Roorkee, Uttrakhand, India

Recommended Citation:
Pandey, Brij Kishor,Khare, Deepak,Kawasaki, Akiyuki,et al. Climate Change Impact Assessment on Blue and Green Water by Coupling of Representative CMIP5 Climate Models with Physical Based Hydrological Model[J]. WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,33(1):141-158
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