globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.05.002
WOS记录号: WOS:000453643900017
论文题名:
Improving WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat phenology in Europe: Evaluation and effects on yield
作者: Ceglar, A.1; van der Wijngaart, R.2; de Wit, A.2; Lecerf, R.1; Boogaard, H.2; Seguini, L.1; van den Berg, M.1; Toreti, A.1; Zampieri, M.1; Fumagalli, D.1; Baruth, B.1
通讯作者: Ceglar, A.
刊名: AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
ISSN: 0308-521X
EISSN: 1873-2267
出版年: 2019
卷: 168, 页码:168-180
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Triticum aestivum ; Europe ; Phenology ; WOFOST ; Calibration ; Crop yield forecasting
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CROP ; IMPLEMENTATION ; AFRCWHEAT2 ; IMPACTS ; DROUGHT ; PREDICT ; MAIZE
WOS学科分类: Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
英文摘要:

This study describes and evaluates improvements to the MARS crop yield forecasting system (MCYFS) for winter soft wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Europe, based on the WOFOST crop simulation model, by introducing autumn sowing dates, realistic soil moisture initialization, adding vernalization requirements and photoperiodicity, and phenology calibration. Dataset of phenological observations complemented with regional cropping calendars across Europe is used. The calibration of thermal requirements for anthesis and maturity is done by pooling all available observations within European agro-environmental zones and minimizing an objective function that combines the differences between observed and simulated anthesis, maturity and harvest dates. Calibrated phenology results in substantial improvement in simulated dates of anthesis with respect to the original MCYFS simulations. The combined improvements to the system result in a physically more plausible spatial distribution of crop model indicators across Europe. Crop yield indicators point to better agreement with recorded national winter wheat yields with respect to the original MCYFS simulations, most pronounced in central, eastern and southern Europe. However, model skill remains low in large parts of western Europe, which may possibly be attributed to the impacts of wet conditions.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/127442
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra, Italy
2.Wageningen Environm Res Alterra, Earth Observat & Environm Informat, POB 47AA, NL-6700 Wageningen, Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
Ceglar, A.,van der Wijngaart, R.,de Wit, A.,et al. Improving WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat phenology in Europe: Evaluation and effects on yield[J]. AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS,2019-01-01,168:168-180
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