globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2017.1401973
WOS记录号: WOS:000467884000002
论文题名:
Projections of Future Trends in Biogeochemical Conditions in the Northwest Atlantic Using CMIP5 Earth System Models
作者: Lavoie, Diane; Lambert, Nicolas; Gilbert, Denis
通讯作者: Lavoie, Diane
刊名: ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN
ISSN: 0705-5900
EISSN: 1480-9214
出版年: 2019
卷: 57, 期:1, 页码:18-40
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; 2016-2065 ; nitrate ; dissolved oxygen ; pH ; regional model ; lateral boundaries ; Gulf of St ; Lawrence ; Scotian Shelf
WOS关键词: ST-LAWRENCE ESTUARY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ARCTIC-OCEAN ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; NUTRIENT CONCENTRATIONS ; SCOTIAN SHELF ; PART I ; WATER ; GULF ; ACIDIFICATION
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Oceanography
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Oceanography
英文摘要:

We use the results from eight of the Earth System Models (ESMs) made available for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to analyze the projected changes in biogeochemical conditions over the next 50 years in the northwest Atlantic. We looked at the projected changes using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario in the 100-400 m depth range over a large region and at more specific locations to assess the relevance of using these outputs to force a regional climate downscaling model of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The projected trends for dissolved oxygen (decrease), pH (decrease), and nitrate (variable although negative in general) represent a continuation of the recently observed trends in the area. For primary production, no firm conclusions can be drawn because of large differences in the trends from one model to another. The consistency of the trends near the regional model lateral boundaries leads us to conclude that the ESM trends can be used to set up future boundary conditions to evaluate regional impacts of climate change although the uncertainty of the results for the Scotian Shelf will be greater than for the Gulf of St. Lawrence.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/127480
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作者单位: Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Maurice Lamontagne Inst, Mont Joli, PQ, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Lavoie, Diane,Lambert, Nicolas,Gilbert, Denis. Projections of Future Trends in Biogeochemical Conditions in the Northwest Atlantic Using CMIP5 Earth System Models[J]. ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN,2019-01-01,57(1):18-40
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