globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13966
WOS记录号: WOS:000457543300007
论文题名:
Historical weather data for climate risk assessment
作者: Bronnimann, Stefan1,2; Martius, Olivia1,2,3; Rohr, Christian1,4; Bresch, David N.5,6; Lin, Kuan-Hui Elaine7
通讯作者: Bronnimann, Stefan
刊名: ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
ISSN: 0077-8923
EISSN: 1749-6632
出版年: 2019
卷: 1436, 期:1, 页码:121-137
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme events ; climate risk ; climate data ; historical data
WOS关键词: CENTRAL-EUROPE ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; EXTREME EVENTS ; FLOOD EVENTS ; STORM LOSSES ; PRECIPITATION ; DOCUMENTARY ; SWITZERLAND ; REANALYSIS ; RECONSTRUCTION
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Weather- and climate-related hazards are responsible for monetary losses, material damages, and societal consequences. Quantifying related risks is, therefore, an important societal task, particularly in view of future climate change. For this task, climate risk assessment increasingly uses model chains, which mainly build on data from the last few decades. The past record of events could play a role in this context. New numerical techniques can make use of historical weather data to simulate impacts quantitatively. However, using historical data for model applications differs from using recent products. Here, we provide an overview of climate risk assessment methodologies and of the properties of historical instrumental and documentary data. Using three examples, we then outline how historical environmental data can be used today in climate risk assessment by (1) developing and validating numerical model chains, (2) providing a large statistical sample which can be directly exploited to estimate hazards and to model present risks, and (3) establishing "worst-case" events which are relevant references in the present or future. The examples show that, in order to be successful, different sources (reanalyses, digitized instrumental data, and documentary data) and methods (dynamical downscaling and analog methods) need to be combined on a case-by-case basis.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/127488
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland
2.Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Hallerstr 12, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
3.Univ Bern, Mobiliar Lab Nat Risks, Bern, Switzerland
4.Univ Bern, Hist Inst, Bern, Switzerland
5.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Environm Decis, Zurich, Switzerland
6.Fed Off Meteorol & Climatol MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland
7.Acad Sinica, Res Ctr Environm Changes, Taipei, Taiwan

Recommended Citation:
Bronnimann, Stefan,Martius, Olivia,Rohr, Christian,et al. Historical weather data for climate risk assessment[J]. ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES,2019-01-01,1436(1):121-137
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