globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.3390/su11020406
WOS记录号: WOS:000457129900110
论文题名:
A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand Application
作者: Lawrence, Judy1; Bell, Robert2; Stroombergen, Adolf3
通讯作者: Lawrence, Judy
刊名: SUSTAINABILITY
ISSN: 2071-1050
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文关键词: decision pathways ; decision making under (deep) uncertainty ; climate change adaptation ; stakeholder engagement
WOS关键词: SEA-LEVEL RISE ; ADAPTATION ; MANAGEMENT
WOS学科分类: Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Decision makers face challenges in coastal areas about how to address the effects of ongoing and uncertain sea-level rise. Dynamic adaptive pathways planning (DAPP) and Real Options Analysis (ROA) can support decision makers to address irreducible uncertainties in coastal areas. This paper sets out what we learned by complementing multi-criteria decision analysis with DAPP and ROA when developing a 100-year coastal adaptation strategy in Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. Lessons include the value of collaborative community and decision maker processes for increasing understanding about the changing risk over time, and the need to take early actions that enable a shift in pathway before those actions become ineffective. Modifications to the methods highlighted the importance of using several plausible scenarios for stress-testing options; considering costs and consent-ability early, to avoid the perception that hard protection will last; which criteria are appropriate for communities to assess; and making many pathways visible for future decision makers. We learned about the difficulties shifting thinking from short-term protection actions to longer-term anticipatory strategies. We found that a pathways system will require ongoing political leadership and governance with monitoring systems that can manage the adaptive process over long timeframes, by governments and their constituent communities.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/127701
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作者单位: 1.Victoria Univ Wellington, New Zealand Climate Change Res Inst, Wellington 6140, New Zealand
2.Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Hamilton 3216, New Zealand
3.Infometrics, Wellington 6146, New Zealand

Recommended Citation:
Lawrence, Judy,Bell, Robert,Stroombergen, Adolf. A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand Application[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019-01-01,11(2)
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