globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1320184
WOS记录号: WOS:000456811500002
论文题名:
Praying for Rain? Water Scarcity and the Duration and Outcomes of Civil Wars
作者: Keels, Eric
通讯作者: Keels, Eric
刊名: DEFENCE AND PEACE ECONOMICS
ISSN: 1024-2694
EISSN: 1476-8267
出版年: 2019
卷: 30, 期:1, 页码:27-45
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Civil war duration ; water scarcity ; rebel strength ; resources
WOS关键词: NATURAL-RESOURCES ; ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CONFLICT ; SHOCKS ; RESOLUTION ; DISASTERS ; SEVERITY ; LAST
WOS学科分类: Economics
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics
英文摘要:

Recent anecdotal evidence from the civil wars in Somalia and Yemen suggest that water scarcity may shape the dynamics of civil wars. While a considerable body of research has examined the connection between water scarcity (such as low rainfall) and the onset of civil war, very little research has examined how water scarcity may shape the duration and outcomes of civil wars. Looking specifically at rainfall, this paper argues that changes in access to water play a key role in the duration of civil wars. As rainfall declines, there is a reduction in resources available to both the government and the rebel group, leading to a stalemate in fighting. Furthermore, this paper argues that declines in rainfall are felt more acutely by rebel groups who seek to challenge the government through conventional warfare. This paper tests these propositions using hazard models. The results provide robust support for the propositions.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/127709
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Univ Tennessee, Howard H Baker Jr Ctr Publ Policy, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA

Recommended Citation:
Keels, Eric. Praying for Rain? Water Scarcity and the Duration and Outcomes of Civil Wars[J]. DEFENCE AND PEACE ECONOMICS,2019-01-01,30(1):27-45
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