DROUGHT-INDUCED TREE
; CARBON-ISOTOPE DISCRIMINATION
; SCOTS PINE
; RING GROWTH
; HYDRAULIC DETERIORATION
; RECOVERY RATES
; TIPPING POINT
; FOREST TREES
; CLIMATE
; DEATH
WOS学科分类:
Plant Sciences
WOS研究方向:
Plant Sciences
英文摘要:
Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter- annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last similar to 20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.
1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Environm Syst Sci, Inst Terr Ecosyst, Forest Ecol, Zurich, Switzerland 2.Swiss Fed Inst Forest Snow & Landscape Res WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland 3.Univ Montpelier, EPHE, CNRS, ISEM,IRD, Montpellier, France 4.Ulm Univ, Inst Systemat Bot & Ecol, Ulm, Germany 5.CREAF Cerdanyola Valles, Catalonia, Spain 6.Vrije Univ Brussel, Ecol & Biodivers, Brussels, Belgium 7.Royal Museum Cent Africa, Lab Wood Biol & Xylarium, Tervuren, Belgium 8.Univ Helsinki, Dept Forest Sci, Helsinki, Finland 9.Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn, CCT Patagonia Norte, San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina 10.Univ Nacl Rio Negro, Inst Invest Recursos Nat Agroecol & Desarrollo Ru, Sede Andina, San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina 11.Univ Victoria, Dept Biol, Victoria, BC, Canada 12.Univ Milan, Dipartimento Biosci, Milan, Italy 13.CSIC, IPE, Zaragoza, Spain 14.Univ Laval, Dept Sci Bois & Foret, Ctr Forest Res, Fac Foresterie, Quebec City, PQ, Canada 15.Univ Ljubljana, Biotech Fac, Ljubljana, Slovenia 16.US Geol Survey, Western Ecol Res Ctr, Sequoia & Kings Canyon Field Stn, Three Rivers, CA USA 17.INRA, Ecol Forets Mediterraneennes URFM, Avignon, France 18.Ctr Invest Forestal CIFOR, Inst Nacl Invest & Tecnol Agr Alimentaria, Madrid, Spain 19.Tech Univ Dresden, Inst Forest Bot & Forest Zool, Dresden, Germany 20.US Forest Serv, USDA, Forest Hlth Protect, St Paul, MN USA 21.Univ Arkansas, Dept Entomol, Fayetteville, AR 72701 USA 22.Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Dept Biogeochem Proc, Jena, Germany 23.Transilvania Univ Brasov, Dept Forest Sci, Brasov, Romania 24.BC3, Leioa, Spain 25.Desert Bot Garden, Dept Res Conservat & Collect, Phoenix, AZ USA 26.Czech Univ Life Sci, Fac Forestry & Wood Sci, Prague, Czech Republic 27.Humboldt State Univ, Dept Forestry & Wildland Resources, Arcata, CA 95521 USA 28.Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Div, Krasnoyarsk, Russia 29.Siberian Fed Univ, Dept Ecol, Krasnoyarsk, Russia 30.Univ Nacl Comahue, Dept Ecol, Neuquen, Rio Negro, Argentina 31.Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn, Inst Invest Biodiversidad & Medioambiente, San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina 32.Weizmann Inst Sci, Dept Plant & Environm Sci, Rehovot, Israel 33.Slovenian Forestry Inst, Dept Yield & Silviculture, Ljubljana, Slovenia 34.Pablo de Olavide Univ, Dept PhysChem & Nat Syst, Seville, Spain 35.Mediterranean Univ Reggio Calabria, Dept Agr Sci, Reggio Di Calabria, Italy 36.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Espoo, Finland 37.Univ Debrecen, Fac Sci & Technol, Dept Bot, Debrecen, Hungary 38.Nat Resources Canada, Northern Forestry Ctr, Canadian Forest Serv, Edmonton, AB, Canada 39.Univ Innsbruck, Dept Bot, Innsbruck, Austria 40.Technol Educ Inst Stereas Blades, Dept Forestry & Nat Environm Management, Karpenisi, Greece 41.Natl Inst Res & Dev Forestry Marin Dracea, Voluntari, Romania 42.Univ Valladolid, Dept Ciencias Agroforestales, iuFOR, EiFAB, Soria, Spain 43.Univ Colorado, Dept Geog, Boulder, CO 80309 USA 44.No Arizona Univ, Dept Geog Planning & Recreat, Flagstaff, AZ USA 45.Univ Novi Sad, Inst Lowland Forestry & Environm, Novi Sad, Serbia 46.Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn, Grp Ecol Forestal, INTA EEA Bariloche, San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina 47.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Environm Syst Sci, Inst Agr Sci, Zurich, Switzerland 48.CCT CONICET Mendoza, Inst Argentine Nivol Glaciol & Ciencies Ambiental, Lab Dendrocronal & Hist Ambiental, Mendoza, Argentina 49.Univ Alberta, Dept Renewable Resources, Boreal Avian Modelling Project, Edmonton, AB, Canada 50.Univ Minnesota, Dept Biol, Morris, MN 56267 USA 51.Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Dept Biol Anim Biol Vegetal & Ecol, Cerdanyola Del Valles, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Cailleret, Maxime,Dakos, Vasilis,Jansen, Steven,et al. Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth[J]. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE,2019-01-01,9