globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2017-0107
WOS记录号: WOS:000454506700002
论文题名:
Challenging the scientific basis of the Paris climate agreement
作者: Ollila, Antero
通讯作者: Ollila, Antero
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 1756-8692
EISSN: 1756-8706
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:1, 页码:18-34
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Global warming ; Greenhouse gas emissions ; Baseline scenario ; COP21 ; Paris climate agreement
WOS学科分类: Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the scientific basis of the Paris climate agreement. Design/methodology/approach The analyses are based on the IPCC's own reports, the observed temperatures versus the IPCC model-calculated temperatures and the warming effects of greenhouse gases based on the critical studies of climate sensitivity (CS). Findings The future emission and temperature trends are calculated according to a baseline scenario by the IPCC, which is the worst-case scenario RCP8.5. The selection of RCP8.5 can be criticized because the present CO2 growth rate 2.2 ppmy(-1) should be 2.8 times greater, meaning a CO2 increase from 402 to 936 ppm. The emission target scenario of COP21 is 40 GtCO(2) equivalent, and the results of this study confirm that the temperature increase stays below 2 degrees C by 2100 per the IPCC calculations. The IPCC-calculated temperature for 2016 is 1.27 degrees C, 49 per cent higher than the observed average of 0.85 degrees C in 2000. Originality/value Two explanations have been identified for this significant difference in the IPCC's calculations: The model is too sensitive for CO2 increase, and the positive water feedback does not exist. The CS of 0.6 degrees C found in some critical research studies means that the temperature increase would stay below the 2 degrees C target, even though the emissions would follow the baseline scenario. This is highly unlikely because the estimated conventional oil and gas reserves would be exhausted around the 2060s if the present consumption rate continues.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/127883
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作者单位: Aalto Univ, Sch Engn, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Espoo, Finland

Recommended Citation:
Ollila, Antero. Challenging the scientific basis of the Paris climate agreement[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,11(1):18-34
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