globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1805187115
WOS记录号: WOS:000455610300012
论文题名:
Economic carbon cycle feedbacks may offset additional warming from natural feedbacks
作者: Woodard, Dawn L.1; Davis, Steven J.1,2; Randerson, James T.1
通讯作者: Woodard, Dawn L. ; Randerson, James T.
刊名: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2019
卷: 116, 期:3, 页码:759-764
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon cycle feedbacks ; climate change ; economic damages ; integrated assessment models ; fossil fuels
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TEMPERATURE ; SENSITIVITY ; IMPACT ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

As the Earth warms, carbon sinks on land and in the ocean will weaken, thereby increasing the rate of warming. Although natural mechanisms contributing to this positive climate-carbon feedback have been evaluated using Earth system models, analogous feedbacks involving human activities have not been systematically quantified. Here we conceptualize and estimate the magnitude of several economic mechanisms that generate a carbon-climate feedback, using the Kaya identity to separate a net economic feedback into components associated with population, GDP, heating and cooling, and the carbon intensity of energy production and transportation. We find that climate-driven decreases in economic activity (GDP) may in turn decrease human energy use and thus fossil fuel CO2 emissions. In a high radiative forcing scenario, such decreases in economic activity reduce fossil fuel emissions by 13% this century, lowering atmospheric CO2 by over 100 ppm in 2100. The natural carbon-climate feedback, in contrast, increases atmospheric CO2 over this period by a similar amount, and thus, the net effect including both feedbacks is nearly zero. Our work highlights the importance of improving the representation of climate-economic feedbacks in scenarios of future change. Although the effects of climate warming on the economy may offset weakening land and ocean carbon sinks, a loss of economic productivity will have high societal costs, potentially increasing wealth inequity and limiting resources available for effective adaptation.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/127918
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA
2.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA 92697 USA

Recommended Citation:
Woodard, Dawn L.,Davis, Steven J.,Randerson, James T.. Economic carbon cycle feedbacks may offset additional warming from natural feedbacks[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2019-01-01,116(3):759-764
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