SYSTEM
; UNCERTAINTY
; SCENARIOS
; IMPACTS
; ENERGY
WOS学科分类:
Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向:
Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:
Notwithstanding current heavy dependence on gas-fired electricity generation in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), hydropower is expected to play an essential role in improving electricity access in the region. Expansion planning of electricity infrastructure is critical to support investment and maintaining balanced consumer electricity prices. Variations in water availability due to a changing climate could leave hydro infrastructure stranded or result in underutilization of available resources. In this study, we develop a framework consisting of long-term models for electricity supply and water systems management, to assess the vulnerability of potential expansion plans to the effects of climate change. We find that the most resilient EAPP rollout strategy corresponds to a plan optimised for a slightly wetter climate compared to historical trends. This study demonstrates that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations in selected countries (Uganda & Tanzania) while others, such as Egypt, are less vulnerable.
1.KTH Royal Inst Technol, Unit Energy Syst Anal, Off K514,Brinellvagen 68, S-10044 Stockholm, Sweden 2.UCL, UCL Inst Sustainable Resources, Cent House,14 Upper Woburn Pl, London WC1H 0NN, England 3.Ind Econ Inc, 2067 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02140 USA 4.MIT, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA 5.RAND Corp, POB 2138,1776 Main St, Santa Monica, CA 90407 USA 6.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria 7.Cyprus Inst, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi St, CY-2121 Nicosia, Cyprus 8.Stockholm Environm Inst US Ctr, 11 Curtis Ave, Somerville, MA 02144 USA 9.World Bank, 1818 H St, Washington, DC 20433 USA
Recommended Citation:
Sridharan, Vignesh,Broad, Oliver,Shivakumar, Abhishek,et al. Resilience of the Eastern African electricity sector to climate driven changes in hydropower generation[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2019-01-01,10