globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.11.005
WOS记录号: WOS:000460600900006
论文题名:
Applicability of a one-dimensional coupled ecological-hydrodynamic numerical model to future projections in a very deep large lake (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)
作者: Fenocchi, Andrea1; Rogora, Michela2; Morabito, Giuseppe2; Marchetto, Aldo2; Sibilla, Stefano1; Dresti, Claudia2
通讯作者: Fenocchi, Andrea
刊名: ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
ISSN: 0304-3800
EISSN: 1872-7026
出版年: 2019
卷: 392, 页码:38-51
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 1D coupled ecological-hydrodynamic model ; Long-term calibration/validation ; Deep-water chemistry ; Phytoplankton succession ; Ecosystem evolution ; Climate change effects
WOS关键词: SUB-ALPINE LAKE ; WATER-QUALITY ; BIOGEOCHEMICAL MODEL ; FUNCTIONAL-GROUPS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PHYTOPLANKTON ; OLIGOTROPHICATION ; SIMULATIONS ; SCENARIOS ; DYNAMICS
WOS学科分类: Ecology
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

One-dimensional coupled ecological-hydrodynamic numerical models of lakes require extensive calibration of their chemical and biological parameters. Application of these models to future projections relies on the time invariance of the calibrated model parameters and of the adopted schematisation. This is mere speculation for real ecosystems, so that it is relevant to explore the limits of coupled models over extended periods. To date, almost all applications in literature have been calibrated over a couple of years at most, with comparable validation periods, if present. Furthermore, past studies mostly concerned shallow to moderately deep small lakes, so that reproducing the hypolimnetic chemical evolution of very deep large lakes has generally been overlooked. Last, most works did not compare with observations or even model the succession of phytoplankton species, but only dealt with total Chlorophyll-alpha. Here, the GLM-AED2 (General Lake Model - Aquatic EcoDynamics) coupled model was calibrated and validated for an overall 16.75-year period for the 370-m deep and 213-km(2) wide Lake Maggiore (Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland), focusing on the reproduction of both deep-water chemistry and phytoplankton biomass and succession. Despite the modelling simplifications needed for this complex basin, the resulting performances are comparable to those in literature for shallower and smaller lakes over shorter periods. Still, extreme care must be put when interpreting the results of coupled ecological-hydrodynamic models for long-term projections, especially regarding the evolution of phytoplankton.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/128152
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Pavia, Dept Civil Engn & Architecture, Via Ferrata 3, I-27100 Pavia, Italy
2.CNR, Water Res Inst, Largo Tonolli 50, I-28922 Verbania, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Fenocchi, Andrea,Rogora, Michela,Morabito, Giuseppe,et al. Applicability of a one-dimensional coupled ecological-hydrodynamic numerical model to future projections in a very deep large lake (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)[J]. ECOLOGICAL MODELLING,2019-01-01,392:38-51
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