WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
; 1.5 DEGREES-C
; FUTURE CHANGES
; SCENARIO FRAMEWORK
; PROJECTED CHANGES
; RIVER-BASIN
; FREQUENCY
; IMPACT
; GENESIS
; PRECIPITATION
WOS学科分类:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:
Adverse impacts and increasing economic losses from tropical cyclones (TCs) are a major focus in respect to the potential global warming of 1.5 degrees C or even 2.0 degrees C. Based on observed meteorological data and county-scale loss records, loss-inducing rainfall and wind speed thresholds are identified using the regional climate model CCLM to project future TC events in China. An established damage function is combined with future gross domestic product predictions under five shared socio-economic pathways. At the 1.5 degrees C warming level, normalized TC losses will be four times higher than in the reference period (1986-2005). At the 2.0 degrees C warming level, a sevenfold increase is projected. Relative to the 1.5 degrees C warming level, TCs will become more frequent under the 2.0 degrees C scenario, especially along the southeast coast of China. Nearly 0.2-0.5% of the increase in gross domestic product might be offset by TC losses between the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming levels, and the single highest TC loss at 2.0 degrees C may double that at 1.5 degrees C, with a larger affected area and more severe rainstorms and wind speeds. Rainfall is attributed more often to TC losses than wind speed. Limiting global warming at 1.5 degrees C would avoid an estimated increase in TC losses of more than 120 billion CNY annually.
1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Geog Sci, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 4.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 5.Ningbo Univ, Dept Geog & Spatial Informat Tech, Ningbo, Zhejiang, Peoples R China 6.Eberhard Karls Univ Tubingen, Dept Geosci, Tubingen, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Wen, Shanshan,Wang, Yanjun,Su, Buda,et al. Estimation of economic losses from tropical cyclones in China at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(2):724-737