globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10666-018-9619-1
WOS记录号: WOS:000456563900008
论文题名:
Modeling Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology of Keleta Watershed in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia
作者: Bekele, Daniel1; Alamirew, Tena2; Kebede, Asfaw3; Zeleke, Gete2; Melesse, Assefa M.4
通讯作者: Bekele, Daniel
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT
ISSN: 1420-2026
EISSN: 1573-2967
出版年: 2019
卷: 24, 期:1, 页码:95-107
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Keleta watershed ; Hydrological process ; SWAT ; Ethiopia
WOS关键词: SWAT MODEL ; STREAMFLOW ; AVAILABILITY ; REGIME ; NILE
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Regional and local hydrological regimes are significantly vulnerable to global climate change which threaten water resources and food security of nations. This study investigates the likely impact of climate change on hydrological processes of the Keleta watershed in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Delta statistical downscaling methods were used to downscale 20 global circulation models (GCMs) and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) over the study periods of 2050s and 2080s. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate hydrological processes. The model was calibrated and validated using monthly observed streamflow data for the baseline year (1985). It performed well with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.74, ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) 0.51, and percent bias (PBIAS) 15.3. The results show that RCP 4.5 predicts an average precipitation increase of 15.2 and 17.2% for mid- and end-of-century data, respectively. Similarly, RCP 8.5 predicts an average precipitation increase of 19.9 and 34.4% for mid- and end-of-century data, respectively. Mid-century minimum and maximum temperature increases range from 1.8 to 1.6 degrees C (RCP 4.5) to 2.6 to 2.1 degrees C (RCP 8.5), respectively, while end-of-century increases vary from 2.4 to 2.0 degrees C (RCP 4.5) and 4.6 to 3.7 degrees C (RCP 8.5), respectively. This leads to an average increase in runoff by 70%. The increased rainfall, warmer temperature, and significant increment in the hydrologic components, and particularly the excess runoff and associated extreme peak flow over the coming decades, are likely to put a tremendous pressure on the hydrological system of the watershed. This calls for sustainable and effective adaptive measures for future water resource management.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/128541
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Melkassa Agr Res Ctr, Ethiopian Inst Agr Res, POB 436, Adama, Ethiopia
2.Addis Ababa Univ, Water & Land Resource Ctr, POB 3880, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
3.Haramaya Univ, Inst Technol, POB 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
4.Florida Int Univ, Dept Earth & Environm, Miami, FL 33199 USA

Recommended Citation:
Bekele, Daniel,Alamirew, Tena,Kebede, Asfaw,et al. Modeling Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology of Keleta Watershed in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT,2019-01-01,24(1):95-107
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