globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0379-3
WOS记录号: WOS:000456994900016
论文题名:
A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling
作者: Mori, Masato1; Kosaka, Yu1; Watanabe, Masahiro2; Nakamura, Hisashi1; Kimoto, Masahide2
通讯作者: Mori, Masato
刊名: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN: 1758-678X
EISSN: 1758-6798
出版年: 2019
卷: 9, 期:2, 页码:123-+
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS ; SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; MIDLATITUDE WEATHER ; COLD WINTERS ; IMPACT
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Northern midlatitudes, over central Eurasia in particular, have experienced frequent severe winters in recent decades(1-3). A remote influence of Arctic sea-ice loss has been suggested(4-14); however, the importance of this connection remains controversial because of discrepancies among modelling and between modelling and observational studies(15-17). Here, using a hybrid analysis of observations and multi-model large ensembles from seven atmospheric general circulation models, we examine the cause of these differences. While all models capture the observed structure of the forced surface temperature response to sea-ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas-including Eurasian cooling-we show that its magnitude is systematically underestimated. Owing to the varying degrees of this underestimation of sea-ice-forced signal, the signal-to-noise ratio differs markedly. Correcting this underestimation reconciles the discrepancy between models and observations, leading to the conclusion that similar to 44% of the central Eurasian cooling trend for 1995-2014 is attributable to sea-ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas. Our results strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has significantly amplified the probability of severe winter occurrence in central Eurasia via enhanced melting of the Barents-Kara sea ice. The difference in underestimation of signal-to-noise ratio between models therefore calls for careful experimental design and interpretation for regional climate change attribution.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/128624
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作者单位: 1.Univ Tokyo, Res Ctr Adv Sci & Technol, Tokyo, Japan
2.Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, Chiba, Japan

Recommended Citation:
Mori, Masato,Kosaka, Yu,Watanabe, Masahiro,et al. A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019-01-01,9(2):123-+
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