globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.2166/wp.2018.207
WOS记录号: WOS:000460158800013
论文题名:
Trends of Streamflow under climate change for 26 Brazilian basins
作者: Tiezzi, Rafael O.1; Barbosa, Paulo S. F.2; Lopes, Joao E. G.3; Francato, Alberto L.2; Zambon, Renato C.4; Silveira, Alexandre1; Menezes, Paulo H. B. J.1; Isidoro, Jorge M. G. P.5,6
通讯作者: Isidoro, Jorge M. G. P.
刊名: WATER POLICY
ISSN: 1366-7017
出版年: 2019
卷: 21, 期:1, 页码:206-220
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Hydrological modelling ; Rainfall ; River basins ; Streamflow ; Water resources ; Brazil
WOS关键词: INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; SOUTH-AMERICA ; WATER POLICY ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

Changes in the climate system and the hydrologic regime strongly affect all water uses and human activity. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of rainfall pattern change on streamflow for 26 Brazilian basins with hydropower plants. More precisely, the goal is to estimate the trends on average streamflow for the 2011-2100 period. The estimated trends result from the analysis of rainfall obtained from a possible climate scenario, among others. The annual average streamflow for this 90-year period is simulated and compared with records from 83 years of observations (1931-2013). Simulations were carried out using two rainfall-to-streamflow hydrological models: Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) and Stochastic Linear Model (SLM). Results from simulations show important impacts, namely, an increase of streamflow in the southern basins and a decrease in the northern basins. Such changes can lead to disastrous consequences, considering the historical exposure to floods and droughts in the southern and northeast regions, respectively. These findings, in addition to the recent severe drought events that have occurred in such regions, provide awareness of a new cycle of reform to the existing water policies and Brazilian institutional framework, which saw the completion of its first 20 years in 2017.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/128976
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Fed Alfenas, Inst Sci & Technol, Rodovia Jose Aurelio Vilela 11999,BR 267 Km 533, BR-37715400 Pocos De Caldas, MG, Brazil
2.Univ Estadual Campinas, Sch Civil Engn Architecture & Urban Design, Dept Water Resources, R Saturnino Brito,224,Cidade Univ, BR-13083889 Campinas, SP, Brazil
3.Rua Sao Pedro 54,Ap 151, BR-13025350 Campinas, SP, Brazil
4.Univ Sao Paulo, Polytech Sch, Dept Hydraul & Environm Engn, Av Prof Almeida Prado,83 Trav 2,Cidade Univ, BR-05508900 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
5.Univ Algarve, Inst Engn, Dept Civil Engn, Campus Penha, P-8005139 Faro, Portugal
6.MARE Marine & Environm Sci Ctr, Coimbra, Portugal

Recommended Citation:
Tiezzi, Rafael O.,Barbosa, Paulo S. F.,Lopes, Joao E. G.,et al. Trends of Streamflow under climate change for 26 Brazilian basins[J]. WATER POLICY,2019-01-01,21(1):206-220
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