globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5867
WOS记录号: WOS:000459665000036
论文题名:
Non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis of extreme precipitation events in Finland, 1961-2016
作者: Pedretti, Daniele1; Irannezhad, Masoud2,3
通讯作者: Pedretti, Daniele
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:2, 页码:1128-1143
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; extreme precipitation ; extreme value analysis ; Generalized Pareto ; non-stationarity ; Poisson distribution
WOS关键词: ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; TRENDS ; STATIONARITY ; TEMPERATURE ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; VARIABILITY ; STATISTICS ; RAINFALL
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

There is an urgent need to understand and predict how extreme precipitation events (EPEs) will change at high latitudes, both for local climate change adaptation plans and risk mitigation and as a potential proxy anticipating the impact of climate change elsewhere in the world. This paper illustrates that a combination of non-stationary modelling approaches can be adopted to evaluate trends in EPEs under uncertainty. A large database of daily rainfall events from 281 sparsely distributed weather stations in Finland between 1961 and 2016 was analysed. Among the tested methods, Poisson distributions provided a powerful method to evaluate the impacts of multiple physical covariates, including temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs), on the resulting trends. The analysis demonstrates that non-stationarity is statistically valid for the majority of observations, independently of their location in the country and the season of the year. However, subsampling can severely hinder the statistical validity of the trends, which can be easily confused with random noise and therefore complicate the decision-making processes regarding long-term planning. Scaling effects have a strong impact on the estimates of non-stationary parameters, as homogenizing the data in space and time reduces the statistical validity of the trends. Trends in EPE statistics (mean, 90 and 99% percentiles) and best-fitted Generalized Pareto parameters in the tails of the distributions appear to be stronger when approaching the Polar region (Lapland) than away from it, consistent with the Arctic amplification of climate change. ACPs are key covariates in physically explaining these trends. In particular, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can explain statistically significant increases in extreme precipitation in Lapland, Bothnian and South regions of Finland, particularly during summer and fall seasons.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/129048
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Geol Survey Finland GTK, PO 96, Espoo, Finland
2.Southern Univ Sci & Technol SUSTech, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
3.Univ Oulu, Water Resources & Environm Engn Res Unit, Oulu, Finland

Recommended Citation:
Pedretti, Daniele,Irannezhad, Masoud. Non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis of extreme precipitation events in Finland, 1961-2016[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(2):1128-1143
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Pedretti, Daniele]'s Articles
[Irannezhad, Masoud]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Pedretti, Daniele]'s Articles
[Irannezhad, Masoud]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Pedretti, Daniele]‘s Articles
[Irannezhad, Masoud]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.