SOIL-MOISTURE
; MIDDLE-EAST
; GROUNDWATER DEPLETION
; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE
; TRIPLE COLLOCATION
; WATER MANAGEMENT
; HYPERSALINE LAKE
; UNITED-STATES
; TIME-SERIES
; SALINE LAKE
WOS学科分类:
Engineering, Civil
; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
; Water Resources
WOS研究方向:
Engineering
; Geology
; Water Resources
英文摘要:
Lake Urmia-a shallow endemic hypersaline lake in northwest Iran-has undergone a dramatic decline in its water level (WL), by about 8 m, since 1995. The primary cause of the WL decline in Lake Urmia has been debated in the scientific literature, regarding whether it has been predominantly driven by atmospheric climate change or by human activities in the watershed landscape. Using available climate, hydrological, and vegetation data for the period 1981-2015, this study analyzes and aims to explain the lake desiccation based on other observed hydro-climatic and vegetation changes in the Lake Urmia watershed and classical exploratory statistical methods. The analysis accounts for the relationships between atmospheric climate change (precipitation P, temperature T), and hydrological (soil moisture SM, and WL) and vegetation cover (VC; including agricultural crops and other vegetation) changes in the landscape. Results show that P, T, and SM changes cannot explain the sharp decline in lake WL since 2000. Instead, the agricultural increase of VC in the watershed correlates well with the lake WL change, indicating this human-driven VC and associated irrigation expansion as the dominant human driver of the Lake Urmia desiccation. Specifically, the greater transpiration from the expanded and increasingly irrigated agricultural crops implies increased total evapotranspiration and associated consumptive use of water (inherently related to the irrigation and water diversion and storage developments in the watershed). Thereby the runoff from the watershed into the lake has decreased, and the remaining smaller inflow to the lake has been insufficient for keeping up the previous lake WL, causing the observed WL drop to current conditions.
1.Univ Wisconsin, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Madison, WI 53706 USA 2.Univ Melbourne, Dept Infrastruct Engn, Melbourne, Vic, Australia 3.Radiant Earth, Washington, DC USA 4.Univ Melbourne, Dept Comp & Informat Syst, Melbourne, Vic, Australia 5.Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA 6.Imperial Coll London, Ctr Environm Policy, London, England 7.Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden 8.Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden 9.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA USA 10.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA USA
Recommended Citation:
Khazaei, Bahram,Khatami, Sina,Alemohammad, Seyed Hamed,et al. Climatic or regionally induced by humans? Tracing hydro-climatic and land-use changes to better understand the Lake Urmia tragedy[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2019-01-01,569:203-217