globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.028
WOS记录号: WOS:000457952900049
论文题名:
Assessment of the joint impact of extreme rainfall and storm surge on the risk of flooding in a coastal area
作者: Zellou, Bouchra; Rahali, Hassane
通讯作者: Zellou, Bouchra
刊名: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN: 0022-1694
EISSN: 1879-2707
出版年: 2019
卷: 569, 页码:647-665
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Flood ; Joint risk ; Tide ; Rainfall ; Bivariate copula ; Dependence
WOS关键词: MODELING DEPENDENCE ; BOUNDARY-CONDITIONS ; TAIL-DEPENDENCE ; RIVER FLOW ; SEA SURGE ; COPULA ; PRECIPITATION ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; PROBABILITY ; NETWORK
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

In coastal areas, flood events can result from the interaction of several factors such as rainfall, river flow and the classical tidal asymmetry to mention but a few. Therefore, flood risk assessment in these areas involves not only the estimation of the extreme values of each variable, but also their probability of occurring simultaneously. This study investigates the combined effect and dependence between a "heavy" rainfall with a high tidal levels forcing on the occurrence and severity of floods in the urban neighborhood close to the estuary of the Bouregreg River (Morocco). The methodology used for this analysis is based on a bivariate copula model to evaluate the joint risk probability of flood events. The estimated joint probability is used to define the boundary conditions for a hydraulic model to quantify the water levels and the extent of floods caused by the combination of both extreme rainfall and storm surge. The considered variables reveal a not negligible correlation, and the copula approach seems to be suitable and enough flexible, for analyzing separately marginal distributions of the source variables and their structure of dependence. Results show that the joint probability of rainfall and tide both exceeding their critical thresholds remains low to moderate, and the biggest threat to this area might be caused by heavy rainfall. However, high tide adds an extra risk by reducing the capacity of the urban drainage in absorbing storm water; especially when rainfall intensity exceeds 100 years return period. Although rainfall and tide introduce a wide range of time scale meteorological forcing, this won't prevent storm surge and extreme rainfall events resulting from climate change, to take place in the future, on the same day leading to some of the most critical flooding scenarios in this area.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/129179
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Univ Med V, Inst Sci, BP 703, Rabat, Morocco

Recommended Citation:
Zellou, Bouchra,Rahali, Hassane. Assessment of the joint impact of extreme rainfall and storm surge on the risk of flooding in a coastal area[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2019-01-01,569:647-665
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