globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-018-0298-5
WOS记录号: WOS:000457499200024
论文题名:
The effect of precipitation and temperature on wheat yield in Turkey: a panel FMOLS and panel VECM approach
作者: Dogan, Hasan Gokhan; Kan, Arzu
通讯作者: Dogan, Hasan Gokhan
刊名: ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
ISSN: 1387-585X
EISSN: 1573-2975
出版年: 2019
卷: 21, 期:1, 页码:447-460
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agricultural policy ; Precipitation ; Panel cointegration-FMOLS-VECM ; Temperature ; Turkey ; Wheat yield
WOS关键词: UNIT-ROOT TESTS ; WATER-USE EFFICIENCY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; EXTREME HEAT ; COINTEGRATION ; IMPACTS ; IRRIGATION ; REGRESSION ; DROUGHT ; MAIZE
WOS学科分类: Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Wheat is one of the products that can have the greatest effect of climate anomalies. Turkey is among the top 10 countries in the world with the production of approximately 20million tons of wheat per year. In this study, the effect of the changes in temperature and precipitation in Turkey between 1997 and 2016 on wheat yield was investigated by panel FMOLS and panel VECM analysis. The study includes three regions that slight drought, moderate drought and severe drought. According to the analysis results, in each of the three regions evaluated, it appears that yield is inversely related to temperature, while there is a positive relationship with precipitation. As a result of the vector error correction model, in slight drought (SLD), moderate drought (MD) and severe drought regions (SVD), long-term causality relation between temperature and precipitation factors with wheat yield was determined. In conclusion, it can be said that due to climatic trends caused by climatic factors, the 1% increase in temperature may lead to yield loss of 0.84%, 0.43 and 0.48% for wheat in SVD, MD and SLD regions, respectively. Similarly, the 1% increase in precipitation may increase the wheat yield as 0.20%, 0.12 and 0.09% in SVD, MD and SLD regions, respectively. Accordingly, it may be suggested to re-model some practices taking into account the changing climatic conditions such as the selection of appropriate varieties, agricultural production systems and sowing dates.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/129192
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Kirsehir Ahi Evran Univ, Agr Fac, Dept Agr Econ, TR-40100 Kirsehir, Turkey

Recommended Citation:
Dogan, Hasan Gokhan,Kan, Arzu. The effect of precipitation and temperature on wheat yield in Turkey: a panel FMOLS and panel VECM approach[J]. ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY,2019-01-01,21(1):447-460
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