globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.10.023
WOS记录号: WOS:000454523300039
论文题名:
Communicating model uncertainty for natural hazards: A qualitative systematic thematic review
作者: Doyle, Emma E. H.1; Johnston, David M.1,2; Smith, Richard3; Paton, Douglas4
通讯作者: Doyle, Emma E. H.
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
ISSN: 2212-4209
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 页码:449-476
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Communication ; Uncertainty ; Models ; Decision-making ; Engagement ; Typology
WOS关键词: VOLCANOLOGY KNOWLEDGE GENERATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DECISION-MAKING ; VISUALIZING UNCERTAINTY ; RISK PERCEPTION ; IMPROVING COMMUNICATION ; CLIVE OPPENHEIMER ; ACTIVE VOLCANOS ; EXPERT ADVICE ; AMY DONOVAN
WOS学科分类: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Natural hazard models are vital for all phases of risk assessment and disaster management. However, the high number of uncertainties inherent to these models is highly challenging for crisis communication. The non-communication of these is problematic as interdependencies between them, especially for multi-model approaches and cascading hazards, can result in much larger deep uncertainties. The recent upsurge in research into uncertainty communication makes it important to identify key lessons, areas for future development, and areas for future research. We present a systematic thematic literature review to identify methods for effective communication of model uncertainty. Themes identified include a) the need for clear uncertainty typologies, b) the need for effective engagement with users to identify which uncertainties to focus on, c) managing ensembles, confidence, bias, consensus and dissensus, d) methods for communicating specific uncertainties (e.g., maps, graphs, and time), and e) the lack of evaluation of many approaches currently in use. Finally, we identify lessons and areas for future investigation, and propose a framework to manage the communication of model related uncertainty with decision-makers, by integrating typology components that help identify and prioritise uncertainties. We conclude that scientists must first understand decision-maker needs, and then concentrate efforts on evaluating and communicating the decision-relevant uncertainties. Developing a shared uncertainty management scheme with users facilitates the management of different epistemological perspectives, accommodates the different values that underpin model assumptions and the judgements they prompt, and increases uncertainty tolerance. This is vital, as uncertainties will only increase as our model (and event) complexities increase.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/129404
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Massey Univ, Joint Ctr Disaster Res, POB 756, Wellington 6140, New Zealand
2.GNS Sci, POB 30 368, Lower Hutt 5010, New Zealand
3.Earthquake Commiss, Majest Ctr, Level 11,100 Willis St, Wellington, New Zealand
4.Charles Darwin Univ, Coll Hlth & Human Sci, Perth, WA, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Doyle, Emma E. H.,Johnston, David M.,Smith, Richard,et al. Communicating model uncertainty for natural hazards: A qualitative systematic thematic review[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION,2019-01-01,33:449-476
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Doyle, Emma E. H.]'s Articles
[Johnston, David M.]'s Articles
[Smith, Richard]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Doyle, Emma E. H.]'s Articles
[Johnston, David M.]'s Articles
[Smith, Richard]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Doyle, Emma E. H.]‘s Articles
[Johnston, David M.]‘s Articles
[Smith, Richard]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.