globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001012
WOS记录号: WOS:000453220300002
论文题名:
Minimizing Urban Floodplain Management Regrets under Deeply Uncertain Climate Change
作者: Hecht, Jory S.1,2; Kirshen, Paul H.3
通讯作者: Hecht, Jory S.
刊名: JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 0733-9496
EISSN: 1943-5452
出版年: 2019
卷: 145, 期:2
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: WATER-RESOURCES ; MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION ; ROBUST OPTIMIZATION ; RISK ; ADAPTATION ; MODEL ; SIMULATION ; STRATEGIES ; PROTECTION ; LESSONS
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Optimization modeling can reveal promising multiperiod schedules for adapting to deeply uncertain changes in flooding. We contribute a parsimonious optimization model (mixed integer program) that adjusts the efficacy of property-scale adaptation measures (first-floor elevation, wet floodproofing, permanent retreat, insurance) for different floodwall investments and insurance incentives. After minimizing expected flood-control and damage costs for individual scenarios, we identified adaptation portfolios that minimize underdesign and overdesign regrets under a deeply uncertain future. A near-optimal solutions algorithm also identified diverse solutions with different multistakeholder tradeoffs. A stylized example showed that, when mild damage is tolerated, portfolios combining smaller floodwalls, wet floodproofing of basements, and moderately elevated manufactured (mobile) homes can be more robust to climate uncertainty than larger floodwalls alone. Yet, near-optimal solutions demonstrated that larger floodwalls without any property-scale measures are also feasible. Insurance incentives targeting property-scale measures (elevation, wet floodproofing) suited for permanent homes discourage municipal floodwall investments and force owners of manufactured homes to retreat. The results motivate further research on wet floodproofing, retreat financing, and insurance-based adaptation incentives.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/129451
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.Univ Vermont, Vermont EPSCoR, Burlington, VT 05401 USA
2.Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA
3.Univ Massachusetts Boston, Sch Environm, Boston, MA 02125 USA

Recommended Citation:
Hecht, Jory S.,Kirshen, Paul H.. Minimizing Urban Floodplain Management Regrets under Deeply Uncertain Climate Change[J]. JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,145(2)
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