globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.011
WOS记录号: WOS:000456641100057
论文题名:
Evidence of climatic change in Vietnam: Some implications for agricultural production
作者: Kien Nguyen Duc1,2; Ancev, Tiho2; Randall, Alan2,3
通讯作者: Kien Nguyen Duc
刊名: JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 0301-4797
EISSN: 1095-8630
出版年: 2019
卷: 231, 页码:524-545
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Spatio-temporal pattern ; Statistical methods ; Geostatistical techniques ; Farming ; Vietnam
WOS关键词: EXTREME RAINFALL ; HOMOGENEITY TEST ; TREND ANALYSIS ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; PACIFIC ; SERIES ; REGION
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Systemic changes in environmental conditions, such as climate, can have a significant impact on both natural and human systems. This paper provides an improved understanding of the spatio-temporal variations in underlying climate processes, and the potential effects climate change may have on Vietnam's agricultural sector. Statistical methods were combined with geostatistical techniques to test the statistical significance of long-term trends in the climatic variables, graphically representing the distribution of climate patterns, identifying variations and trends of changes over time and their likely effects on agricultural production. By using records of monthly precipitation and temperature for a relatively long-term period (1975-2014) over a high density of 112 meteorological stations across the country, robust statistical and visual evidence of climatic change throughout Vietnam are provided. The Mann-Kendall trend test confirms the statistically significant long-term trends of rainfall and temperature in many regions across the country. The visual analysis shows remarkable changes in the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of those variables and most of the 'hotspot' areas identified by geostatistical mapping are in areas with confirmed long-term trends. The long-term significant trends are also concentrated in areas with very high proportion of agricultural land, particularly land used for rice production in the Red River and Mekong River deltas. The findings deliver a better understanding of underlying climate processes and impacts across regions of Vietnam and provide a basis to develop effective climate-related policies for agricultural production in response to changing climatic conditions.


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被引频次[WOS]:19   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/129515
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.Hue Univ, Univ Econ, Fac Econ & Dev Studies, 99 Ho Dac Di St, Hue City, Vietnam
2.Univ Sydney, Sch Econ, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
3.Ohio State Univ, Environm & Dev Econ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA

Recommended Citation:
Kien Nguyen Duc,Ancev, Tiho,Randall, Alan. Evidence of climatic change in Vietnam: Some implications for agricultural production[J]. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,231:524-545
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