globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF001093
WOS记录号: WOS:000461279800008
论文题名:
Distinctive Evolutions of Eurasian Warming and Extreme Events Before and After Global Warming Would Stabilize at 1.5 degrees C
作者: Liu, Jiawei1,2,3; Xu, Haiming1,2; Luo, Jing-Jia1,2; Deng, Jiechun1,2
通讯作者: Xu, Haiming
刊名: EARTHS FUTURE
EISSN: 2328-4277
出版年: 2019
卷: 7, 期:2, 页码:151-161
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: CHINA SEA ; CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS ; OCEAN ; HEAT ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; KUROSHIO ; END
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Utilizing the specially designed low-warming experiments of the fully coupled Community Earth System Model, we investigate the evolutions of Eurasian climate and extreme events if global mean temperature would stabilize at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels or overshoot the 1.5 degrees C (1.5 degrees C OS) threshold. We find that distinctive evolutions of surface temperature (TS) and extreme events appear in different regions of Eurasia, particularly over East China and Northern Eurasia. In the course of global warming, before global mean temperature stabilizes, the two regions display similar changes of TS and extreme events. However, after global warming halts, the two regions experience distinctive evolutions of local warming and extreme events. Over East China, where the adjacent ocean exhibits stronger-than-global mean warming, the local TS and both the strength and frequency of heat extremes keep increasing continuously. The extreme precipitation intensity increases even more rapidly compared to the change of heat extremes. In stark contrast, TS and heat extremes intensity over northern Eurasia decrease in both the 1.5 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C OS cases, except that the extreme precipitation experiences little change. We find that the most vulnerable period over northern Eurasia is the transition period, in which TS increases till its maximum and then decreases. The heat extremes during the transition period are also stronger and more frequent compared to the end of the 21st century over northern Eurasia.


Plain Language Summary Utilizing the specially designed model experiments, we investigate the evolutions of Eurasian climate and extreme events if global mean temperature would stabilize at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. We find that distinctive evolutions of surface temperature (TS) and extreme events appear in different regions of Eurasia, particularly over East China and Northern Eurasia. Before global mean temperature stabilizes, the two regions display similar changes of TS and extreme events. However, after global warming halts, the two regions experience distinctive evolutions of local warming and extreme events. Over East China, adjacent a stronger-than-global mean ocean warming, the local TS and both the strength and frequency of heat extremes keep increase continuously. The extreme precipitation intensity increases even more rapidly compared to the change of heat extremes. In stark contrast, TS and heat extremes intensity over northern Eurasia decrease at 1.5 degrees C, except that the extreme precipitation experiences little change. We find that the most vulnerable period over northern Eurasia is the transition period, in which TS increases till its maximum and then decreases. The heat extremes during the transition period are also stronger and more frequent compared to the end of the 21st century over northern Eurasia.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/129555
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
3.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Liu, Jiawei,Xu, Haiming,Luo, Jing-Jia,et al. Distinctive Evolutions of Eurasian Warming and Extreme Events Before and After Global Warming Would Stabilize at 1.5 degrees C[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2019-01-01,7(2):151-161
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